Which Countries Generate Kondratieff Waves in Global GDP Growth Rate Dynamics in the Contemporary World?

Korotayev, Andrey; Bilyuga, Stanislav; Шишкина, Алиса

doi:10.30884/jogs/2020.01.03

Cited by 10 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Therewith, a slight phase shift can be observed for the frequency range corresponding to the long cycles (0.025-0.015) (Fig. 2(b), 3(b), 4(b)), which is an empirical confirmation of the synchronisation of the time series of GDP per capita in the most industrialised countries, which are the main generators of long waves in the economy [23].…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 58%

Cross-Spectral Analysis of Long-Term Economic Cycles

Derbentsev

Ovcharenko

Datsenko

et al. 2022

Scientific Bulletin of Mukachevo State University Series “Economics”

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One of the problems of studying economic cycles, namely long-term ones, is the choice of an adequate method that allows identifying and explaining the nature of the economic cycle according to available statistical data, which subsequently becomes the basis for predicting future economic dynamics. In addition, questions remain open not only concerning the establishment of the duration of Kondratieff cycles, but also the very fact of their existence. For this purpose, the study investigated time series of annual GDP per capita growth rates for such countries as England, France, and the Netherlands for 1820-2015. In this paper, the cross-spectral analysis approach was developed as a modelling tool for identifying long waves, the use of which, in contrast to classical Fourier spectral analysis, allows investigating the periodicity of two interrelated time series simultaneously in the frequency and time domains. As a result of the analysis, coherence and phase shift graphs were constructed for the investigated time series, which became the basis for identifying and determining the duration of economic cycles of different periods. According to the obtained results, it was found that all selected time series have a high coherence value (within the range of 0.8-0.9) in the frequency domain corresponding to K-waves with the period of 38-55 years (in the frequency range 0.025-0.015). At the same time, a slight phase shift was obtained for the frequency range corresponding to long cycles, which is an empirical confirmation of the synchronisation of the investigated time series. These facts are an additional argument for empirical confirmation of the existence of long waves. The practical significance of this study is that the identification of multi-period cycles using the proposed approach allows developing and implementing adequate counter-cyclical measures to timely regulate economic development at both the macro- and meso-levels

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 58%

Cross-Spectral Analysis of Long-Term Economic Cycles

Derbentsev

Ovcharenko

Datsenko

et al. 2022

Scientific Bulletin of Mukachevo State University Series “Economics”

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“…Thus, (Baburin, 2019) researched the resilience of the economies of the Greater Baltic Region to the cycles` conditions, calculated the cycle duration of 5-7 years and indicated that the main factor of stability of a country is its specialization. In their works (Korotayev et al, 2020) studied Kondratiev's long waves based on growth rates of global GDP and concluded that it is the developing countries that are generating such waves during the given period. (Göbel & Araújo, 2020) went further.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling macroeconomic indicators in unstable economies

Zhukova

Sobolieva-Tereshchenko

2021

Journal of International Studies

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A method for analysis of the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators based on the model of a piecewise trend for economies of unstable growth is proposed. The relevance of the article is supported by the absence of adequate mathematical models and the inadequacy of traditional continuous models to describe the features of economic dynamics of this type. Its application is demonstrated on the examples of Ukraine, Greece and Italy in comparison with stable developing countries of Eastern Europe -the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Poland. In the process of approbation new indices of instability based on this model have been developed. A higher degree of conformity of the proposed model is proved in comparison with traditional continuous models not only for countries with signs of unstable economic dynamics, but also for some countries with stable economies. During approbation, a new index of instability of growth was developed based on this piecewise linear trend model. The indices of instability of growth were calculated for 43 European countries for the period from 1989 to 2019 and their rating was built.

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“…Demography is one of the important factors of convergence (Korotayev et al 2015(Korotayev et al , 2020, as it can make essential contribution to economic growth and its speed. The specific attention of researchers to the relationship between demographic and economic dynamics dates back to Thomas Malthus (1978Malthus ( [1798).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Demographic Globalization: Contribution to Global Economic Growth in Long-Term Perspective

Shulgin,

Zinkina

2023

JGS

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Demography is one of the important factors of the Great Convergence. We estimate the contribution of the demographic factor to the prospective GDP dynamics for all countries of the world up to 2100. We use a long-term economic growth model that is based on estimates of labor productivity growth rates and incorporates the demographic forecast for both population and life expectancy. Globally, our model estimates long-term economic growth of world GDP at an average annual rate of 1.7 per cent, of which the demographic factor accounts for 0.54 percentage points, or about one-third (31.8 per cent) of the projected world economic growth in the twenty-first century. In our forecasts, we have relied on the logic of the previous research on convergence, which considered a sufficiently high level of the human capital development and a sufficient degree of economic openness as necessary conditions for convergence, which have now largely been achieved throughout the world precisely through the globalization processes (especially in the core and the semi-periphery of the World System). However, the inclusion of the demographic projections in our forecasts allows us to emphasize an important feature of the perspective convergence – it is not the semi-periphery, but rather the periphery of the World System, or the ‘bottom billion’ according to Collier, that is likely to converge particularly rapidly with both the core and the semi-periphery (such as the BRICS countries) thanks to favorable demographic structure. The paper has been prepared within the framework of RANEPA state assignment in 2023.

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Which Countries Generate Kondratieff Waves in Global GDP Growth Rate Dynamics in the Contemporary World?

Cited by 10 publications

References 63 publications

Cross-Spectral Analysis of Long-Term Economic Cycles

Cross-Spectral Analysis of Long-Term Economic Cycles

Modeling macroeconomic indicators in unstable economies

Demographic Globalization: Contribution to Global Economic Growth in Long-Term Perspective

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