Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems

Mackinson, Steven; Daskalov, Georgi; Heymans, Johanna J.; Neira, Sergio Peña; Arancibia, Hugo; Rejón, Manuel Jesús Zetina; Jiang, Hong; Cheng, Heqin; Coll, Marta; Arreguı́n-Sánchez, Francisco; Keeble, K.; Shannon, Lynne J.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.10.021

Cited by 112 publications

(87 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Previous examination of marine ecosystem models has indicated that while fishing is an important influence on fish biomass, it is not a deterministic response, as complex food web interactions between species, and trophic levels make species responses difficult to predict (Mackinson et al, 2009;Speirs et al, 2010). The differences observed between the total and first order sensitivity indices of the fishing rates concurred with this, indicating that within the model, fishing was very influential but interactions with other factors did occur to produce the resultant outputs.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 67%

“…Ecosystem models that combine environmental, biological and fishing data are recognised as important in understanding the effects of climate change and ocean acidification on fisheries (Le Quense and Pinnegar, 2012;Mackinson et al, 2009;Travers et al, 2007). We report on the results of a global sensitivity analysis conducted on one of these end-to-end ecosystem models that incorporates the impact of fishing and environmental drivers on a marine food web.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: Factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos

Morris

Speirs

Cameron

et al. 2014

Ecological Modelling

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This version is available at https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/45100/ Strathprints is designed to allow users to access the research output of the University of Strathclyde. Unless otherwise explicitly stated on the manuscript, Copyright © and Moral Rights for the papers on this site are retained by the individual authors and/or other copyright owners. Please check the manuscript for details of any other licences that may have been applied. You may not engage in further distribution of the material for any profitmaking activities or any commercial gain. You may freely distribute both the url (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk/) and the content of this paper for research or private study, educational, or not-for-profit purposes without prior permission or charge.Any correspondence concerning this service should be sent to the Strathprints administrator: strathprints@strath.ac.ukThe Strathprints institutional repository (https://strathprints.strath.ac.uk) is a digital archive of University of Strathclyde research outputs. It has been developed to disseminate open access research outputs, expose data about those outputs, and enable the management and persistent access to Strathclyde's intellectual output.Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos AbstractComprehensive analysis of parameter and driver sensitivity is key to establishing the credibility of models representing complex systems. This is especially so for models of natural systems where experimental manipulation of the real-world to provide controlled validation data is not possible.End-to-end ecosystem models (nutrients to birds and mammals) of marine ecosystems fall into this category with applications for evaluating the effects of climate change and fishing on nutrient fluxes and the abundances of flora and fauna. Here we present results of both 'one-at-a-time' (OAT) and variance based global sensitivity analyses (GSA) of the fish and fishery aspects of StrathE2E, an end-to-end ecosystem model of the North Sea. The sensitivity of the model was examined with respect to internal biological parameters, and external drivers related to climate and human activity.The OAT Morris method was first used to screen for factors most influential on model outputs. The Sobol GSA method was then used to calculate quantitative sensitivity indices. The results indicated that the fish and shellfish components of the model (demersal and pelagic fish, filter/deposit and scavenge/carnivore feeding benthos) were influenced by different sets of factors. Harvesting rates were directly influential on demersal and pelagic fish biomasses. Suspension/deposit feeding benthos were directly sensitive to changes in temperature, while the temperature acted indirectly on pelagic fish through the connectivity between model components of the food web. Biomass conversion efficiency was the most important factor for scavenge/carnivorous feeding benthos.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 67%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: Factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos

Morris

Speirs

Cameron

et al. 2014

Ecological Modelling

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“…Nevertheless, in the case of model-based TL indicators, correlations with SST may also reflect the fact that most of these models are either forced by, or fit to, some form of environmental data series (e.g. Mackinson et al 2009), although not necessarily the temperature series used here.…”

Section: Tl-based Indicators In the Context Of Environmental Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Trophic level-based indicators to track fishing impacts across marine ecosystems

Shannon¹,

Coll²,

Bundy³

et al. 2014

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

134

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Trophic level (TL)-based indicators have been widely used to examine fishing impacts in aquatic ecosystems and the induced biodiversity changes. However, much debate has ensued regarding discrepancies and challenges arising from the use of landings data from commercial fisheries to calculate TL indicators. Subsequent studies have started to examine survey-based and model-based indicators. In this paper, we undertake an extensive evaluation of a variety of TL indicators across 9 well-studied marine ecosystems by making use of model-as well as surveyand catch-based TL indicators. Using detailed regional information and data on fishing history, fishing intensity, and environmental conditions, we evaluate how well TL indicators are capturing fishing effects at the community level of marine ecosystems. Our results highlight that the differences observed between TL indicator values and trends is dependent on the data source and the TL cut-off point used in the calculations and is not attributable to an intrinsic problem with TLbased indicators. All 3 data sources provide useful information about the structural changes in the ecosystem as a result of fishing, but our results indicate that only model-based indicators represent fishing impacts at the whole ecosystem level.

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“…During the Ecosim scenarios, phytoplankton biomass was kept constant (simulating no bottom-up control), as were fishery removals for commercially harvested fish species (simulating constant top-down mortalities). To further reduce top-down and bottom-up influences, as well as potentially confounding species-specific interactions, all vulnerability values were set to the default value of 2 (Mackinson et al 2009). Once it was determined which 2 micronekton groups elicited the strongest responses to species at the top of the food web, those 2 micronekton groups were simultaneously reduced by 30% of their initial biomass levels for a 50 yr period using Ecosim ('crustaceans and mollusks' scenario).…”

Section: Ecosim Perturbation Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Finding the way to the top: how the composition of oceanic mid-trophic micronekton groups determines apex predator biomass in the central North Pacific

Choy

Wabnitz²,

Weijerman³

et al. 2016

Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser.

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We updated and expanded a model of the pelagic ecosystem for the area of the central North Pacific occupied by the Hawaii-based longline fishery. Specifically, results from the most recent diet studies were used to expand the representation of the lesser-known non-target fish species (e.g. lancetfish, opah, snake mackerel) and 9 mid-trophic micronekton functional groups. The model framework Ecopath with Ecosim was used to construct an ecosystem energy budget and to examine how changes in the various micronekton groups impact apex predator biomass. Model results indicate that while micronekton fishes represented approximately 54% of micronekton biomass, they accounted for only 28% of the micronekton production. By contrast, crustaceans represented 24% of the biomass and accounted for 44% of production. Simulated ecosystem changes resulting from changes to micronekton groups demonstrated that crustaceans and mollusks are the most important direct trophic pathways to the top of the food web. Other groups appear to comprise relatively inefficient pathways or 'trophic dead-ends' that are loosely coupled to the top of the food web (e.g. gelatinous animals), such that biomass declines in these functional groups resulted in increased biomass at the highest trophic levels by increasing energy flow through more efficient pathways. Overall, simulated declines in the micronekton groups resulted in small changes in biomass at the very top of the food web, suggesting that this ecosystem is relatively ecologically resilient with diverse food web pathways. However, further understanding of how sensitive micronekton are to changes in ocean chemistry and temperature resulting from climate change is needed to fully evaluate and predict potential ecosystem changes.

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Which forcing factors fit? Using ecosystem models to investigate the relative influence of fishing and changes in primary productivity on the dynamics of marine ecosystems

Cited by 112 publications

References 31 publications

Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: Factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos

Global sensitivity analysis of an end-to-end marine ecosystem model of the North Sea: Factors affecting the biomass of fish and benthos

Trophic level-based indicators to track fishing impacts across marine ecosystems

Finding the way to the top: how the composition of oceanic mid-trophic micronekton groups determines apex predator biomass in the central North Pacific

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