Why Might Climate Change Not Cause Conflict? An Agent-Based Computational Response

Abstract

In this paper, we first briefly review the recent literature on climate change, resource scarcity and conflict. This is then followed by introducing an agent based computational model based on the theory of production and conflict which is capable of simulating the dynamics of micro-level resource conflicts. The model considers differences in resource attributes, differentiates between conflict subjects, takes into account bounded rationality, nonlinearity and feedback loops, and is enriched by a set of scenarios ranging between mild to severe resource shocks. Our results show that agents tend not to get engage in conflict during mild resource scarcity scenarios as they adapt to the changes and since the decreases in returns to resource predation and increases in their protective practices act as negative feedback loops, discouraging resource predators from allocating further effort to predation. The model results also show that scarcity is more likely to encourage product predation rather than resource predation among the agents. JEL: Q54, D74, Q34, C61, C63