Wildfires Risk Assessment Using Hotspot Analysis and Results Application to Wildfires Strategic Response in the Region of Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima, Morocco

Abstract

In recent years, changes in climate, land cover, and sociodemographic dynamics have created new challenges in wildfire management. As a result, advanced and integrated approaches in wildfire science have emerged. The objective of our study is to use geospatial analysis to identify strategic responses to wildfires in the Tangier-Tetouan-Al Hoceima (TTA) region, widely reputed to exhibit the most significant incidences of wildfires in Morocco. We adopted a combined approach, using burned area products (Fire_CCI51: 2002–2020) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and active fires from the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS: 2001–2022) and processing them with spatiotemporal statistical methods: optimized hotspot analysis (OHA) and emerging hotspot analysis (EHA). The main findings indicate that the TTA region recorded an average of 39.78 km2/year of burned areas, mostly located in forests (74%), mainly cork oak and matorral stands (50%). The OHA detected hotspots covering 2081 km2, with 63% concentrated in the provinces of Chefchaouen and Larache. Meanwhile, clusters of EHA extended over 740 km2 and were composed of the oscillating coldspot (OCS) and oscillating hotspot (OHS) patterns at 50% and 30%, respectively. Additionally, an average of 149 fires/year occurred, located mostly in forests (75%), mainly cork oak and matorral stands (61%). The OHA detected active fire hotspots covering 3904 km2, with 60% located in the provinces of Chefchaouen and Larache. Clusters of EHA over 941 km2 were composed of the oscillating hotspot (OHS) and new hotspot (NHS) patterns at 57% and 25%, respectively. The prevalence of the oscillating and new models mirrors, respectively, the substantial fluctuations in wildfires within the region alternating between periods of high and low wildfire activities and the marked increase in fires in recent times, which has occasioned the emergence of novel hotspots. Additionally, we identified six homogeneous wildfire zones to which we assigned three strategic responses: “maintain” (73% of the territory), “monitor and raise awareness” (14% of the territory), and “reinforce” (13% of the territory). These strategies address current wildfire management measures, which include prevention, risk analysis, preparation, intervention, and rehabilitation. To better allocate firefighting resources, strategic responses were classified into four priorities (very high, high, medium, and low). Last, the wildfire zoning and strategic responses were validated using burned areas from 2021 to 2023, and a global scheme was suggested to assess the effectiveness of future wildfire measures.

Deforestation drivers in northern Morocco: an exploratory spatial data analysis

“…This practice, coupled with the high flammability of the vegetation cover and the arid conditions during the summer, positions the region at the forefront among Moroccan regions in terms of fire incidents. This area accounts for approximately 60% of the country's fire outbreaks and burned areas [33].…”

“…This reinforces the findings of our earlier investigation into the assessment of wildfire risk in the TTA region, which determined that hotspots of burned areas cover a total surface of 941 km 2 , with 63% concentrated in the aforementioned two provinces. Additionally, the study highlighted substantial fluctuations in wildfire occurrences, oscillating between periods of increased and decreased wildfire activities, and emphasized a notable surge in fires in recent times, leading to the emergence of new hotspots [33].…”

“…Within northern Morocco, fires present a serious threat to the sustainability of forest ecosystems. More precisely, the TTA region stands as the leading area in the country in terms of both the number and size of recorded forest fires [33].…”

Accuracy assessment and uncertainty of 10-m resolution land use land cover maps at the local scale. Case: Talassemtane National Park, Morocco

“…A recent study evaluated a gross loss of 8.39% of the Western Rif forest capital between 2001 and 2020, which is equivalent to a total area of 272.37 km 2 [45]. Moreover, this region is characterized by a high frequency of wildfires with an average annual area of 39.78 km 2 /year [46]. Created in 2004, the TNP covers an area of 64,000 ha.…”