Will China's Yellow River basin suffer more serious combined dry and wet abrupt alternation in the future?

Jiang, Shanhu; Chen, Hao; Ren, Liliang; Yan, Denghua; Yang, Xiaoli; Yuan, Shanshui; Liu, Yi; Wang, Menghao; Xu, Chong‐Yu

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129871

Cited by 11 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…In recent years, there has been a gradual increase in the frequency of DFAA in China [7,31,32]. Studies on DFAA in China are mainly focused on the Yangtze River Basin, Huaihe River Basin, Pearl River Basin, and Southwest China [12,[33][34][35]. Like other regions in China, the southeastern coastal region has also been experiencing more frequent and intense droughts and floods, making the issue of DFAA a significant problem [15,32,36].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events in Southeast China

Zhang,

Chen,

Chen

et al. 2024

Water

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Under climate change, the frequency of drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA) events is increasing in Southeast China. However, there is limited research on the evolution characteristics of DFAA in this region. This study evaluated the effectiveness of the drought and flood indexes including SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index), SPEI (Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index), and SWAP (Standardized Weighted Average Precipitation Index) in identifying DFAA events under varying days of antecedent precipitation. Additionally, the evolution characteristics of DFAA events in Fujian Province from 1961 to 2021 were explored. The results indicate that (1) SPI-12d had the advantages of high effectiveness, optimal generalization accuracy, and strong generalization ability of identification results, and it can be used as the optimal identification index of DFAA events in Southeast China. (2) There was an overall increase in DFAA events at a rate of 1.8 events/10a. The frequency of DFAA events showed a gradual increase from the northwest to the southeast. (3) DTF events were characterized by moderate drought to flood, particularly in February, July, and August, while FTD events were characterized by light/moderate flood to drought, with more events occurring from June to October. (4) DTF event intensity increased in the northern and western regions from 1961 to 2021. For FTD events, the intensity notably increased in the western region from 1961 to 2001, while a significant increase occurred in all regions except the central region from 2001 to 2021. These findings emphasize the need for precautionary measures to address the increasing frequency and severity of DFAA events in Southeast China.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events in Southeast China

Zhang,

Chen,

Chen

et al. 2024

Water

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“…While some studies have examined the characteristics of extreme precipitation events, it is important to note that the variables of extreme precipitation events are not independent of each other and exhibit some degree of joint behavior. The joint distribution can contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of the variability of precipitation events [5]. Among various multivariate analysis methods, copula functions offer computational convenience and flexible options for selecting marginal distribution functions, allowing for a clearer understanding of multivariate joint distributions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Joint Probability Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin

Li,

Zhang,

Zhang

2023

Water

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The relationship between climate change and extreme precipitation is extremely complex. From a probabilistic perspective, a proper understanding of the response of extreme precipitation to climate change is of significant importance. This study was based on daily precipitation provided by CMIP6 climate models and employed copula functions to construct joint distributions of precipitation amount and precipitation intensity indices at different quantile levels. A spatial–temporal assessment of the susceptibility areas for extreme precipitation in the Yellow River Basin was conducted while considering bivariate return periods and design values. The results indicate that there were significant spatial differences in the bivariate return periods. Taking the R90P-SDII (90) index for a 20a return period as an example, the difference between the maximum and minimum joint return periods within the Yellow River Basin was 1.4 times, while the co-occurring return period was 7.0 times, and the Kendall return period was 4 times. Moreover, this difference increased with the increase in the return period. The magnitude order of the four return periods is as follows: TAnd > TKendall > TSingle-variable > TOr. Joint return periods (Or) and co-occurring return periods (And) could be considered as the extreme cases under single-variable return periods, serving as an estimation interval for actual return periods. Under the influence of climate change, the bivariate design values for future periods exhibited a variability increase of 6.76–28.8% compared to historical periods, and this increase grew with higher radiative forcing scenarios, ranking as SSP126 < SSP245 < SSP585. The bivariate design values showed a noticeable difference in variability compared to the single-variable design values, ranging from −0.79% to 18.67%. This difference increased with higher quantile values, with R95P-SDII (95) > R90P-SDII (90) > PRCPTOT-SDII.

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Identifying the spatiotemporal patterns of drought-flood alternation based on IMERG product in the humid subtropical Poyang Lake basin, China

Li,

Yuan,

Sun

et al. 2024

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

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Will China's Yellow River basin suffer more serious combined dry and wet abrupt alternation in the future?

Cited by 11 publications

References 57 publications

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events in Southeast China

Spatial-Temporal Variations of Drought-Flood Abrupt Alternation Events in Southeast China

Future Joint Probability Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin

Identifying the spatiotemporal patterns of drought-flood alternation based on IMERG product in the humid subtropical Poyang Lake basin, China

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