Wind speed and electricity demand correlation analysis in the Australian National Electricity Market: Determining wind turbine generators’ ability to meet electricity demand without energy storage

Bell, William Paul; Wild, Phillip; Foster, John; Hewson, Michael

doi:10.1016/j.eap.2015.11.009

Cited by 30 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…1) The proposed approach is able to capture the impact of correlation on power system planning. 2) Incorporating correlation is relevant in terms of investment plans, thereby confirming the findings of [4]. 3) Expansion plans neglecting correlation are optimistic and underestimate load shedding.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 60%

“…Both the illustrative and 118-bus test systems have been analyzed using synthetic data based on reality. Regarding the case study based on the Polish 2383-bus test system, we use wind data from 27 real locations in Spain where wind farms are installed, whereas demand correlation is synthetically generated using real correlation values from the Australian system [4]. In addition, numerical testing has been conducted for several values of the conservativeness parameter β.…”

Section: Numerical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Within the current context where the growing installation of renewablebased generation assets comes into play, network planners also face unprecedented levels of uncertainty related to available generation capacity. Moreover, due to their strong relation to meteorological phenomena, the spatial correlations of renewable energy sources and demand consumptions within a given geographical area may be significant [2]- [4]. Thus, this paper is devoted to accounting for the effect of such correlated uncertainty on transmission network investment decisions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Robust Transmission Network Expansion Planning Under Correlated Uncertainty

Roldán

Mı́nguez

García-Bertrand

et al. 2019

IEEE Trans. Power Syst.

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This paper addresses the transmission network expansion planning problem under uncertain demand and generation capacity. A two-stage adaptive robust optimization framework is adopted whereby the worst-case operating cost is accounted for under a given user-defined uncertainty set. This work differs from previously reported robust solutions in two respects. First, the typically disregarded correlation of uncertainty sources is explicitly considered through an ellipsoidal uncertainty set relying on their variance-covariance matrix. In addition, we describe the analogy between the corresponding second-stage problem and a certain class of mathematical programs arising in structural reliability. This analogy gives rise to a relevant probabilistic interpretation of the second stage, thereby revealing an undisclosed feature of the worst-case setting characterizing robust optimization with ellipsoidal uncertainty sets. More importantly, a novel nested decomposition approach based on results from structural reliability is devised to solve the proposed robust counterpart, which is cast as an instance of mixed-integer trilevel programming. Numerical results from several case studies demonstrate that the effect of correlated uncertainty can be captured by the proposed robust approach.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 60%

Section: Numerical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Robust Transmission Network Expansion Planning Under Correlated Uncertainty

Roldán

Mı́nguez

García-Bertrand

et al. 2019

IEEE Trans. Power Syst.

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“…small business and households (Buckman & Diesendorf, ). Any merit‐order effects arising from renewable plant entry would thus benefit EITE firms disproportionately (Bell, Wild, Foster, & Hewson, , ; Forrest & MacGill, ).…”

Section: Review Of Australian Climate Change Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…wind and solar) had stalled throughout 2014-2016 due to RET policy discontinuity, while cleaner burning flexible gas-fired generation plant was not entering at all. On the contrary, semi-baseload CCGT plant was being withdrawn due to critical conditions in the gas market (Apergis & Lau, 2015;Bell et al, 2015Bell et al, , 2017Forrest & MacGill, 2013;Simshauser & Nelson, 2015). The anatomy of the unfolding energy crisis can be traced back to climate change policy discontinuity a decade earlier.…”

Section: Finkel Review and The Commonwealth's 2017 Climate Change Polmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change policy discontinuity and its effects on Australia's national electricity market

Simshauser

Tiernan

2018

Aust J Public Adm

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Australia's National Electricity Market (NEM) became unstable in 2016/2017 after 20 years of consistent performance. The South Australian grid collapsed on 28 September 2016 – Australia's first black system event since 1964. Wholesale prices in the region trebled to $120+/MWh; soon after Hazelwood power station announced its exit with just 5 months’ notice. The problem spread as prices elsewhere doubled to $89/MWh from a long‐run average of $42.50. The NEM is experiencing a supply‐side crisis. Consistent with the requirement to decarbonise the system, aged coal‐fired generators are exiting but decades of climate change policy discontinuity has frustrated the entry of new plant. Long‐dated capital‐intensive asset industries like electricity supply anticipate a conventional policy cycle. What they have experienced instead is consistent with garbage can theory. Policy clarity may be emerging for only the second time in two decades. As with the NEM, its durability will depend on cooperative federalism.

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Reconfiguration of distribution systems in the presence of distributed generation considering protective constraints and uncertainties

Fathi

Seyedi

Mohammadi‐Ivatloo

2020

Int Trans Electr Energ Syst

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Summary Distribution network reconfiguration is a common method to achieve objectives such as minimization of power loss and voltage deviations. There exist several different algorithms to find the optimal configuration of network. Almost all of these algorithms consider the main operational constraints such as voltage, current, and power limits. Although it is crucially important to incorporate protective devices and their constraints in the reconfiguration problem, there are few works in network reconfiguration considering protection system. Accordingly, this paper presents a new reconfiguration algorithm considering protective constraints in the presence of distributed generation (DG) units. The objective function of this paper is power loss, which is minimized subject to both operation and protection constraints. In addition to the protection constraints, the effects of DG units on the reconfiguration are considered in this work. Uncertainties in loads and power generation of DG units are also investigated, using a new scenario‐based algorithm. Two test systems are utilized to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed method and to compare it with conventional approaches. Moreover, in order to evaluate the performance of new scenario‐based algorithm, it is compared with Monte Carlo simulations.

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Wind speed and electricity demand correlation analysis in the Australian National Electricity Market: Determining wind turbine generators’ ability to meet electricity demand without energy storage

Cited by 30 publications

References 7 publications

Robust Transmission Network Expansion Planning Under Correlated Uncertainty

Robust Transmission Network Expansion Planning Under Correlated Uncertainty

Climate change policy discontinuity and its effects on Australia's national electricity market

Reconfiguration of distribution systems in the presence of distributed generation considering protective constraints and uncertainties

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