Winter cyclone regimes over the North Atlantic region

Maslova, Veronika N.; Voskresenskaya, E. N.; Yurovsky, A. V.; Bardin, M. Yu.

doi:10.1007/s00704-022-04018-3

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 53 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…However, the frequency of cyclones is expected to decrease also over Iceland, the Norwegian and the White Seas. The structure of the field of anomalies of the frequency of cyclones is more similar to the structure of the negative phase of the East Atlantic-West Russia pattern, which, as shown for the historical period in [81,82], corresponds to the circulation pattern opposite to the blocking in the following centers: the British Isles, Baltic region, northeast coast of the Mediterranean region, Black Sea region, southwest of Eastern Europe. Thus, we have analyzed the changes in cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region in the 21 st century both in terms of cyclogenesis and the shift of cyclone tracks.…”

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 52%

Present and future changes of winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region in the 21st century in CMIP6 models’ ensemble

Voskresenskaya¹,

Maslova²,

Lubkov³

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A better understanding of the expected future cyclonic activity, especially in the Mediterranean Basin in winter, is essential for developing scientifically based adaptation and mitigation methods to extreme precipitation and wind anomalies. The aim of this study is to analyze the change of winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region, within the Atlantic–European region, at the beginning (as the recent historical period), middle and end of the 21st century. The projections are based on an ensemble of seven CMIP6 models, which showed the best consistency with NCEP/NCAR and ERA5 reanalysis, under the intermediate SSP2-4.5 and highest-emission SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results show a consistent increase of the frequency of cyclones over Central Europe and the British Isles associated with the shift of cyclone tracks: norward from the Western Mediterranean region and southward from the Iceland Low. The latter leads to a decrease of the frequency in the north of the Atlantic–European region. At the same time, there is a reduction of the frequency of cyclones over the east of the Mediterranean Sea consistent with the decrease of cyclogenesis events. Area-averaged cyclone numbers in the Western and Eastern Mediterranean and the Black Sea subregions reduce to the end of the century under the highest-emission scenario, but not constantly and with a raise in the middle of the 21st century under both scenarios, which may be linked to the long-term multidecadal variability or regional features. In general, our study shows that the future winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region responds unevenly to global climate changes, because regional and monthly features are important, as well as accounting for the long-term quasiperiodic variability.

show abstract

Section: Conclusion and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 52%

Present and future changes of winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region in the 21st century in CMIP6 models’ ensemble

Voskresenskaya¹,

Maslova²,

Lubkov³

et al. 2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A better understanding of expected future cyclonic activity, especially in winter in the Mediterranean basin, is essential in developing scientifically based adaptation and mitigation methods to study extreme precipitation and wind anomalies. The aim of this study was to analyze the changes in winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea region, as part of the North Atlantic–European sector, at three 15 year periods: the beginning, middle, and end of the 21st century. Our projections were based on an ensemble of seven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), phase 6, models, which showed the best agreement with NCEP/NCAR and ERA5 reanalyses under the intermediate SSP2-4.5 and highest-emission SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results showed a consistent increase in the frequency of cyclones over Central Europe and the British Isles, which was associated with shifts in cyclone tracks: northward from the western Mediterranean region and southward from the Icelandic Low region. The latter shift led to a decrease in the frequency in the northern Atlantic–European region. At the same time, there was a reduction in the frequency of cyclones over the eastern region of the Mediterranean Sea, consistent with the decrease in cyclogenesis events. Area-averaged cyclone numbers in the western and eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea subregions reduced at the end of the century under the highest-emission scenario, but not constantly. There was a rise in the middle of the 21st century under both scenarios, which may be linked to long-term multidecadal variability or regional features. In general, our study showed that the future winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea region will respond unevenly to global climate changes, due to regional and monthly features and long-term quasiperiodic variability.

show abstract

Winter cyclone regimes over the North Atlantic region

Cited by 2 publications

References 53 publications

Present and future changes of winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region in the 21st century in CMIP6 models’ ensemble

Present and future changes of winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean-Black Sea region in the 21st century in CMIP6 models’ ensemble

Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About