Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change

Woolway, R. Iestyn; Denfeld, Blaize A.; Tan, Zeli; Jansen, Joachim; Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Fuente, Sofia La

doi:10.1002/lol2.10231

Cited by 24 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 61 publications

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“…Lake depth will also influence the time taken for lakes to stratify following ice break-up. For example, deeper lakes will experience a longer period of deep convective mixing prior to surface waters reaching 4 °C in spring, and in very large and deep lakes, the spring overturn can continue for weeks to months after ice-off [36][37][38] . Our data suggest an earlier onset date of stratification in 80% of the studied lakes from 1979 to 2020 (Supplementary Fig.…”

Section: Earlier Ice-off and Later Ice-on Results In Excess Lake Warmingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere

Peng

et al. 2022

Nat Commun

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How lake temperatures across large geographic regions are responding to widespread alterations in ice phenology (i.e., the timing of seasonal ice formation and loss) remains unclear. Here, we analyse satellite data and global-scale simulations to investigate the contribution of long-term variations in the seasonality of lake ice to surface water temperature trends across the Northern Hemisphere. Our analysis suggests a widespread excess lake surface warming during the months of ice-off which is, on average, 1.4 times that calculated during the open-water season. This excess warming is influenced predominantly by an 8-day advancement in the average timing of ice break-up from 1979 to 2020. Until the permanent loss of lake ice in the future, excess lake warming may be further amplified due to projected future alterations in lake ice phenology. Excess lake warming will likely alter within-lake physical and biogeochemical processes with numerous implications for lake ecosystems.

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Section: Earlier Ice-off and Later Ice-on Results In Excess Lake Warmingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere

Peng

et al. 2022

Nat Commun

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“… 2018 ), but also in lakes that will transition to becoming ice free, allowing the the potential for evaporation to occur year-round (Woolway et al. 2020 ). Moreover, lake evaporation is expected to increase rapidly in regions that will experience a drying hydroclimate, which will amplify the evaporation increase by enlarging the surface water pressure deficit and reducing cloud shortwave reflection (Zhou et al.…”

Section: How Does Climate Change Affect Water Quantity?mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Lake variables are therefore considered to be essential climate variables (Woolway et al. 2020 )—that is, variables that critically contribute to the characterization of Earth's climate.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Lakes in Hot Water: The Impacts of a Changing Climate on Aquatic Ecosystems

2022

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Our planet is being subjected to unprecedented climate change, with far-reaching social and ecological repercussions. Below the waterline, aquatic ecosystems are being affected by multiple climate-related and anthropogenic stressors, the combined effects of which are poorly understood and rarely appreciated at the global stage. A striking consequence of climate change on aquatic ecosystems is that many are experiencing shorter periods of ice cover, as well as earlier and longer summer stratified seasons, which often result in a cascade of ecological and environmental consequences, such as warmer summer water temperatures, alterations in lake mixing and water levels, declines in dissolved oxygen, increased likelihood of cyanobacterial algal blooms, and the loss of habitat for native cold-water fisheries. The repercussions of a changing climate include impacts on freshwater supplies, water quality, biodiversity, and the ecosystem benefits that they provide to society.

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“…Similarly, lake ice thickness is projected to decline considerably under climate change (Grant et al., 2021; Li et al., 2021; D. J. Mullan et al., 2021). Changes in lake ice dynamics can have widespread ramifications for numerous physical and ecological lake processes, including winter stratification, phytoplankton dynamics, and gas exchange (Hampton et al., 2017; Salonen et al., 2009; Sharma, Blagrave, et al., 2020; Sharma, Meyer, et al., 2020; Woolway, Denfeld, et al., 2021). Understanding lake ice responses to climate change is therefore of critical importance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lake Ice Will Be Less Safe for Recreation and Transportation Under Future Warming

et al. 2022

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Millions of lakes from around the world freeze during winter. These frozen surfaces provide essential ecosystem services that are vital to many northern communities. However, the availability of safe lake ice that is oftentimes required to support these services is under threat from climate change. Here we use a 100‐member ensemble of climate model simulations to investigate changes in the presence of safe lake ice for different recreation and provisioning activities across the Northern Hemisphere. Our projections suggest that the duration of safe ice for recreational purposes will shorten, on average, by 13, 17, and 24 days within a 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C warmer world (relative to 1900–1929), respectively. The projected change in the duration of safe ice will be greater in higher latitudes, but with the most densely populated lower‐latitude regions experiencing the greatest percent change. The use of lake ice to support critical transportation infrastructure will also be influenced by future warming through the loss of thicker ice this century. However, our projections suggest that the magnitude of change in the duration of safe ice will differ depending on the ice thickness requirements. For transportation that requires the thickest ice cover, the number of days with safe ice will decline by 90%, 95%, and 99% with 1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C global warming, respectively. We highlight the need for the development and implementation of adaptation plans to address the imminent loss of critical wintertime transportation infrastructure across the Northern Hemisphere.

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Winter inverse lake stratification under historic and future climate change

Cited by 24 publications

References 61 publications

Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere

Earlier ice loss accelerates lake warming in the Northern Hemisphere

Lakes in Hot Water: The Impacts of a Changing Climate on Aquatic Ecosystems

Lake Ice Will Be Less Safe for Recreation and Transportation Under Future Warming

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