Wittgenstein’s 1929–30 inquiries into probability

Abstract

In Wittgenstein’s manuscripts dating from 1929 and 1930, there are a number of entries on the notion of probability. In this paper, I explore Wittgenstein’s manuscripts between October 1929 and March 1930 and demonstrate, first, that Wittgenstein completely rejects the assumption that probability statements are based on an a priori principle. Second, I argue that the standard interpretation, which claims that Wittgenstein adopts an ‘epistemological view’ of probability, significantly understates the importance of Wittgenstein’s development of the notion of hypotheses as a philosophical term of art.