“Won’t get fooled again”: statistical fault detection in COVID-19 Latin American data

Filho, Dalson Britto Figueiredo; Silva, Lucas; Medeiros, Hugo Augusto Vasconcelos

doi:10.1186/s12992-022-00899-1

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 55 publications

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“…Similarly, our analysis identified notable departures from the expected distribution in the dengue cases dataset, supporting the presence of potential anomalies or irregularities. Another relevant study by Figueiredo Filho et al (2022) examined the application of NBL in detecting data fraud in COVID-19 statistics. Their research revealed deviations from the expected distribution in certain countries' reported COVID-19 data, suggesting possible data irregularities.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the quality of dengue data in the Philippines using Newcomb-Benford law

John Parreño

2023

SIJIS

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Accurate and reliable data are vital for effective disease surveillance and control. This study examined the application of the Newcomb-Benford Law (NBL) as a tool for assessing the quality of dengue cases data in the Philippines. Large-scale datasets from the Epidemiology and Disease Control Surveillance (EDCS) and Philippine Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (PIDSR) reports were analyzed to determine if the observed leading digit distributions deviate significantly from the expected NBL distribution. The statistical tests employed include the chi-squared test, Mantissa Arc Test, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), and distortion factor. The results reveal notable deviations from the expected NBL distribution, particularly in digits 1, 3, 4, 6, and 8, indicating potential irregularities and inconsistencies in the reported data. Factors contributing to these deviations may include data manipulation, measurement errors, and sampling biases. Improving data quality and integrity is crucial to ensure accurate disease surveillance.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the quality of dengue data in the Philippines using Newcomb-Benford law

John Parreño

2023

SIJIS

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“…Aunque la tasa de letalidad por semana epidemiológica es una de las medidas más específicas para calibrar si la pandemia está llegando a su fin, otras son la incidencia de contagios, el índice de positividad, el comportamiento estacional de los brotes, las tasas de vacunación, la disponibilidad de 93-102 tratamientos eficaces y la capacidad de transmisibilidad de las variantes actuales y nuevas sub variantes que van surgiendo del Covid-19 5,6 . Lamentablemente la falta de datos sistematizados de muchos países genera incertidumbre y confusión al momento de analizar los datos 7,8 , por ello en algunos países es difícil establecer si se continua en la fase aguda de la pandemia o en su defecto ya se encuentra en una fase endémica, que implicaría la ausencia de grandes brotes nuevos por Covid-19.…”

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Situación epidemiológica por Covid-19 en Bolivia ante el fin de la emergencia sanitaria internacional.

Mamani Ortiz,

Luizaga López,

Illanes Velarde

2023

GMB

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Introducción: En mayo 2023, la OMS levanta la declaratoria de emergencia sanitaria internacional por Covid-19, pero Bolivia continúa manteniendo la declaratoria de emergencia sanitaria nacional. Objetivo: Describir la situación epidemiológica por Covid-19 en Bolivia en comparación a los países sudamericanos. Metodología: Estudio observacional de tipo ecológico; con datos agregados a nivel departamental y nacional, provenientes de los reportes del Ministerio de Salud de Bolivia y la OMS. Se reportan frecuencias absolutas, porcentajes y tasas de incidencia, mortalidad, letalidad y las coberturas de vacunación, desagregadas por países, departamentos. Resultados: A nivel sudamericano, Bolivia ocupa el 6to lugar en el número de casos confirmados (n=1,198,404); 7mo en número de fallecidos (n=22,383), 5to en letalidad (1,9%), y penúltimo en cobertura de vacunación (52,08%). En Bolivia; se observa una tendencia decreciente de casos entre la primera (n=144,592) y 6ta ola (n=88,859); Santa Cruz reportó más casos (n=4037.908) y Pando el más bajo (n=15,081). La tasa de incidencia fue más alta en Tarija y más baja en Potosí. La tasa de Letalidad fue mayor en la primera ola (6,20%) y más baja en la sexta ola (0,20%). La cobertura de vacunación con al menos una dosis fue mayor en Tarija (75,10%), y la más bajas en Beni (57,10%). Conclusión: Bolivia presenta un descenso significativo en el número total de casos nuevos reportados, con disminución de la tasa de mortalidad y letalidad; sin embargo, las coberturas de vacunación en esquema completo y dosis de refuerzo siguen siendo una de las más bajas a nivel sudamericano.

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“The COVID-19 pandemic in BRICS: Milestones, interventions, and molecular epidemiology”

van Wyk,

Moir,

Banerjee

et al. 2024

PLOS Glob Public Health

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Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (BRICS) are a group of developing countries with shared economic, healthcare, and scientific interests. These countries navigate multiple syndemics, and the COVID-19 pandemic placed severe strain on already burdened BRICS’ healthcare systems, hampering effective pandemic interventions. Genomic surveillance and molecular epidemiology remain indispensable tools for facilitating informed pandemic intervention. To evaluate the combined manner in which the pandemic unfolded in BRICS countries, we reviewed the BRICS pandemic epidemiological and genomic milestones, which included the first reported cases and deaths, and pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented in these countries. To assess the development of genomic surveillance capacity and efficiency over the pandemic, we analyzed the turnaround time from sample collection to data availability and the technologies used for genomic analysis. This data provided information on the laboratory capacities that enable the detection of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants and highlight their potential for monitoring other pathogens in ongoing public health efforts. Our analyses indicated that BRICS suffered >105.6M COVID-19 infections, resulting in >1.7M deaths. BRICS countries detected intricate genetic combinations of SARS-CoV-2 variants that fueled country-specific pandemic waves. BRICS’ genomic surveillance programs enabled the identification and characterization of the majority of globally circulating Variants of Concern (VOCs) and their descending lineages. Pandemic intervention strategies first implemented by BRICS countries included non-pharmaceutical interventions during the onset of the pandemic, such as nationwide lockdowns, quarantine procedures, the establishment of fever clinics, and mask mandates- which were emulated internationally. Vaccination rollout strategies complemented this, some representing the first of their kind. Improvements in BRICS sequencing and data generation turnaround time facilitated quicker detection of circulating and emerging variants, supported by investments in sequencing and bioinformatic infrastructure. Intra-BRICS cooperation contributed to the ongoing intervention in COVID-19 and other pandemics, enhancing collective capabilities in addressing these health challenges. The data generated continues to inform BRICS-centric pandemic intervention strategies and influences global health matters. The increased laboratory and bioinformatic capacity post-COVID-19 will support the detection of emerging pathogens.

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“Won’t get fooled again”: statistical fault detection in COVID-19 Latin American data

Cited by 4 publications

References 55 publications

Assessing the quality of dengue data in the Philippines using Newcomb-Benford law

Assessing the quality of dengue data in the Philippines using Newcomb-Benford law

Situación epidemiológica por Covid-19 en Bolivia ante el fin de la emergencia sanitaria internacional.

“The COVID-19 pandemic in BRICS: Milestones, interventions, and molecular epidemiology”

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