You Can Leave The Autocracy, But Will The Autocracy Leave You? Subjective Well-being of Russian Political Migrants in 2022

Abstract

Due to political crises, millions of people have moved beyond their autocratic home countries in search of a more secure life. However, the influence and control of these autocratic regimes often follow them on this journey. By examining the case of Russian emigration following the full-fledged invasion of Ukraine in 2022, we demonstrate how the direct and indirect actions of autocratic home countries can undermine the subjective well-being of migrants. Utilizing a unique panel survey and in-depth interviews, our findings reveal that the actions of autocratic home countries are significantly connected to the migrants' well-being, often more so than traditional determinants like income and employment. Fears of transnational repression, instilled by the Russian government and widespread among Russian migrants, correlate with a reduction in subjective well-being comparable to the effects of income loss and unemployment. Notably, the fear of discrimination, stemming from a host-country backlash against the actions of autocrats, has a more detrimental effect on well-being than experienced discrimination, highlighting the psychological toll of anticipatory fears. The study also finds that group-based guilt and a sense of responsibility for Russia's actions in Ukraine may further exacerbate subjective well-being of migrants. The paper concludes that autocratic regimes maintain a substantial influence on the lives of their emigrants, frequently intensifying the potential negative impact of host countries. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the complex factors affecting the well-being of individuals forced to emigrate due to political crises. It also sheds light on how autocrats potentially diminish the resilience of political migrants to engage in home-country politics by undermining their psychological resources for action.