spheric models to reproduce observed atmospheric perturbations generated by SPEs, particularly with respect to NO y and ozone changes. We have further assessed the meteorological conditions and their implications for the chemical response to the SPE in both the models and observations by comparing temperature and tracer (CH 4 and CO) fields.Simulated SPE-induced ozone losses agree on average within 5 % with the observations. Simulated NO y enhancements around 1 hPa, however, are typically 30 % higher than indicated by the observations which are likely to be related to deficiencies in the used ionization rates, though other error sources related to the models' atmospheric background state and/or transport schemes cannot be excluded. The analysis of the observed and modeled NO y partitioning in the aftermath of the SPE has demonstrated the need to implement additional ion chemistry (HNO 3 formation via ion-ion recombination and water cluster ions) into the chemical schemes. An overestimation of observed H 2 O 2 enhancements by all models hints at an underestimation of the OH/HO 2 ratio in the upper polar stratosphere during the SPE. The analysis of chlorine species perturbations has shown that the encountered Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 9090 B. Funke et al.: HEPPA intercomparison study differences between models and observations, particularly the underestimation of observed ClONO 2 enhancements, are related to a smaller availability of ClO in the polar night region already before the SPE. In general, the intercomparison has demonstrated that differences in the meteorology and/or initial state of the atmosphere in the simulations cause a relevant variability of the model results, even on a short timescale of only a few days.
This manuscript gives an up-to-date and comprehensive overview of the effects of energetic particle precipitation (EPP) onto the whole atmosphere, from the lower thermosphere/mesosphere through the stratosphere and troposphere, to the surface. The paper summarizes the different sources and energies of particles, principally galactic cosmic rays (GCRs), solar energetic particles (SEPs) and energetic electron precipitation (EEP). All the proposed mechanisms by which EPP can affect the atmosphere are discussed, including chemical changes in the upper atmosphere and lower thermosphere, chemistry-dynamics feedbacks, the global electric circuit and cloud formation. The role of energetic particles in Earth's atmosphere is a multi-disciplinary problem that requires expertise from a range of scientific backgrounds. To assist with this synergy, summary tables are provided, which are intended to evaluate the level of current knowledge of the effects of energetic particles on processes in the entire atmosphere.
The 11 year solar-cycle component of climate variability is assessed in historical simulations of models taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5).Multiple linear regression is applied to estimate the zonal temperature, wind and annular mode responses to a typical solar cycle, with a focus on both the stratosphere and the stratospheric influence on the surface over the period ∼1850-2005. The analysis is performed on all CMIP-5 models but focuses on the 13 CMIP-5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high-top models) and compares the simulated solar cycle signature with reanalysis data. The 11 year solar cycle component of climate variability is found to be weaker in terms of magnitude and latitudinal gradient around the stratopause in the models than in the reanalysis. The peak in temperature in the lower equatorial stratosphere (∼70 hPa) reported in some studies is found in the models to depend on the length of the analysis period, with the last 30 years yielding the strongest response.A modification of the Polar Jet Oscillation (PJO) in response to the 11 year solar cycle is not robust across all models, but is more apparent in models with high spectral resolution in the short-wave region. The PJO evolution is slower in these models, leading to a stronger response during February, whereas observations indicate it to be weaker. In early winter, the magnitude of the modelled response is more consistent with observations when only data from 1979-2005 are considered. The observed North Pacific high-pressure surface response during the solar maximum is only simulated in some models, for which there are no distinguishing model characteristics. The lagged North Atlantic surface response is reproduced in both high-and low-top models, but is more prevalent in the former. In both cases, the magnitude of the response is generally lower than in observations.
A multiple linear regression statistical method is applied to model data taken from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5 (CMIP-5) to estimate the 11-yr solar cycle responses of stratospheric ozone, temperature, and zonal wind during the 1979-2005 period. The analysis is limited to the six CMIP-5 models that resolve the stratosphere (high-top models) and that include interactive ozone chemistry. All simulations assumed a conservative 11-yr solar spectral irradiance (SSI) variation based on the NRL model. These model responses are then compared to corresponding observational estimates derived from two independent satellite ozone profile data sets and from ERA Interim Reanalysis meteorological data. The models exhibit a range of 11-yr responses with three models (CESM1-WACCM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and MRI-ESM1) yielding substantial solar-induced ozone changes in the upper stratosphere that compare favorably with available observations. The remaining three models do not, apparently because of differences in the details of their radiation and photolysis rate codes.During winter in both hemispheres, the three models with stronger upper stratospheric ozone responses produce relatively strong latitudinal gradients of ozone and temperature in the upper stratosphere that are associated with accelerations of the polar night jet under solar maximum conditions. This behavior is similar to that found in the satellite ozone and ERA Interim data except that the latitudinal gradients tend to occur at somewhat higher latitudes in the models. The sharp ozone gradients are dynamical in origin and assist in radiatively enhancing the temperature gradients, leading to a stronger zonal wind response. These results suggest that simulation of a realistic solar-induced variation of upper stratospheric ozone, temperature and zonal wind in winter is possible for at least some coupled climate models even if a conservative SSI variation is adopted.
The surface response to the 11 year solar cycle is assessed in ensemble simulations of the twentieth century climate performed in the framework of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter‐Comparison Project (CMIP5). A lead/lag multiple linear regression analysis identifies a multi‐model mean (MMM) global mean surface warming of about 0.07 K, lagging the solar cycle by 1–2 years on average. The anomalous warming penetrates to approximately the first 80–100 m depth in the ocean. Solar signals in the troposphere show a similar time lag of 1–2 years and the strongest MMM warming is simulated in the Tropics above 300 hPa. At the surface, the MMM response in a subset of models that show statistically significant global mean warming (CMIP5‐SIG95) is characterized by an anomalous warming in the west equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Arctic, at 1–2 years after solar maximum. The Arctic warming is twice as strong as the global mean response and appears in the winter months only. The surface warming in the equatorial Pacific Ocean is related to dynamical/thermodynamical processes. Different increase rates of global mean precipitation and atmospheric water vapour in response to a warmer surface lead to a weaker Walker circulation and anomalous westerly winds over the equatorial Pacific in the years following the solar maximum. Owing to atmosphere–ocean coupling, the anomalous westerly winds cool the subsurface and warm the surface in the western equatorial Pacific by ∼0.14 K. The CMIP5‐SIG95 MMM surface warming in the equatorial Pacific and Arctic is weak but qualitatively similar compared with solar signals in the HadCRUT4 dataset.
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