One of the predicted biological responses to climate warming is the upslope displacement of species distributions. In the tropics, because montane assemblages frequently include local endemics that are distributed close to summits, these species may be especially vulnerable to experiencing complete habitat loss from warming. However, there is currently a dearth of information available for tropical regions. Here, we present a preliminary appraisal of this extinction threat using the herpetological assemblage of the Tsaratanana Massif in northern Madagascar (the island's highest massif), which is rich with montane endemism. We present meteorological evidence (individual and combined regional weather station data and reanalysis forecast data) for recent warming in Madagascar, and show that this trend is consistent with recent climate model simulations. Using standard moist adiabatic lapse rates, these observed meteorological warming trends in northern Madagascar predict upslope species displacement of 17–74 m per decade between 1993 and 2003. Over this same period, we also report preliminary data supporting a trend for upslope distribution movements, based on two surveys we completed at Tsaratanana. For 30 species, representing five families of reptiles and amphibians, we found overall mean shifts in elevational midpoint of 19–51 m upslope (mean lower elevation limit 29–114 m; mean upper elevation limit −8 to 53 m). We also found upslope trends in mean and median elevational observations in seven and six of nine species analysed. Phenological differences between these surveys do not appear to be substantial, but these upslope shifts are consistent with the predictions based on meteorological warming. An elevational range displacement analysis projects complete habitat loss for three species below the 2 °C ‘dangerous’ warming threshold. One of these species is not contracting its distribution, but the other two were not resampled in 2003. A preliminary review of the other massifs in Madagascar indicates potential similar vulnerability to habitat loss and upslope extinction. Consequently, we urgently recommend additional elevational surveys for these and other tropical montane assemblages, which should also include, when possible, the monitoring of local meteorological conditions and habitat change.

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The biodiversity of Madagascar is extraordinarily distinctive, diverse, and endangered. It is therefore urgent that steps be taken to document, describe, interpret, and protect this exceptional biota. As a collaborative group of field and laboratory biologists, we employ a suite of methodological and analytical tools to investigate the vertebrate portion of Madagascar's fauna. Given that species are the fundamental unit of evolution, where microand macroevolutionary forces converge to generate biological diversity, a thorough understanding of species distribution and abundance is critical for understanding the evolutionary, ecological, and biogeographic forces that have shaped Malagasy vertebrate diversity. We illustrate the means by which we apply Mayr's ''three basic tasks'' of the systematist [Mayr, E. (1942) Systematics and the Origin of Species from the Viewpoint of a Zoologist (Harvard Univ. Press, Cambridge, MA)] to identify, classify, and study the organisms that together constitute Madagascar's vertebrate community. Using field inventory methods, specimen-based studies, and morphological and molecular analyses, we formulate hypotheses of species identity that then serve as the foundation for subsequent studies of biology and history. Our experience, as well as that of other investigators, has shown that much of the vertebrate species diversity in Madagascar is ''cryptic'' for both biological and practical reasons. Beyond issues of cryptic biological diversity, the resolution of species identity in Madagascar has been hampered because of a lack of vouchered comparative material at the population level. Through our activities, we are attempting to remedy these limitations while simultaneously enhancing research capacity in Madagascar.The actual demarcation of species taxa uses morphological, geographical, ecological, behavioral, and molecular information to infer the rank of isolated populations.Ernst Mayr (ref. 1, p.276)