ObjectiveTo estimate the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or stroke in adults with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH).DesignMatched cohort study.SettingPopulation based, electronic primary healthcare databases before 31 December 2015 from four European countries: Italy (n=1 542 672), Netherlands (n=2 225 925), Spain (n=5 488 397), and UK (n=12 695 046).Participants120 795 adults with a recorded diagnosis of NAFLD or NASH and no other liver diseases, matched at time of NAFLD diagnosis (index date) by age, sex, practice site, and visit, recorded at six months before or after the date of diagnosis, with up to 100 patients without NAFLD or NASH in the same database.Main outcome measuresPrimary outcome was incident fatal or non-fatal AMI and ischaemic or unspecified stroke. Hazard ratios were estimated using Cox models and pooled across databases by random effect meta-analyses.Results120 795 patients with recorded NAFLD or NASH diagnoses were identified with mean follow-up 2.1-5.5 years. After adjustment for age and smoking the pooled hazard ratio for AMI was 1.17 (95% confidence interval 1.05 to 1.30; 1035 events in participants with NAFLD or NASH, 67 823 in matched controls). In a group with more complete data on risk factors (86 098 NAFLD and 4 664 988 matched controls), the hazard ratio for AMI after adjustment for systolic blood pressure, type 2 diabetes, total cholesterol level, statin use, and hypertension was 1.01 (0.91 to 1.12; 747 events in participants with NAFLD or NASH, 37 462 in matched controls). After adjustment for age and smoking status the pooled hazard ratio for stroke was 1.18 (1.11 to 1.24; 2187 events in participants with NAFLD or NASH, 134 001 in matched controls). In the group with more complete data on risk factors, the hazard ratio for stroke was 1.04 (0.99 to 1.09; 1666 events in participants with NAFLD, 83 882 in matched controls) after further adjustment for type 2 diabetes, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol level, statin use, and hypertension.ConclusionsThe diagnosis of NAFLD in current routine care of 17.7 million patient appears not to be associated with AMI or stroke risk after adjustment for established cardiovascular risk factors. Cardiovascular risk assessment in adults with a diagnosis of NAFLD is important but should be done in the same way as for the general population.

Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a common condition that progresses in some patients to steatohepatitis (NASH), cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Here we used healthcare records of 18 million adults to estimate risk of acquiring advanced liver disease diagnoses in patients with NAFLD or NASH compared to individually matched controls. Methods Data were extracted from four European primary care databases representing the UK, Netherlands, Italy and Spain. Patients with a recorded diagnosis of NAFLD or NASH (NAFLD/NASH) were followed up for incident cirrhosis and HCC diagnoses. Each coded NAFLD/NASH patient was matched to up to 100 “non-NAFLD” patients by practice site, gender, age ± 5 years and visit recorded within ± 6 months. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox models adjusted for age and smoking status and pooled across databases by random effects meta-analyses. Results Out of 18,782,281 adults, we identified 136,703 patients with coded NAFLD/NASH. Coded NAFLD/NASH patients were more likely to have diabetes, hypertension and obesity than matched controls. HR for cirrhosis in patients compared to controls was 4.73 (95% CI 2.43–9.19) and for HCC, 3.51 (95% CI 1.72–7.16). HR for either outcome was higher in patients with NASH and those with high-risk Fib-4 scores. The strongest independent predictor of a diagnosis of HCC or cirrhosis was baseline diagnosis of diabetes. Conclusions Real-world population data show that recorded diagnosis of NAFLD/NASH increases risk of life-threatening liver outcomes. Diabetes is an independent predictor of advanced liver disease diagnosis, emphasising the need to identify specific groups of patients at highest risk. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-019-1321-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundNon-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of liver disease worldwide. It affects an estimated 20% of the general population, based on cohort studies of varying size and heterogeneous selection. However, the prevalence and incidence of recorded NAFLD diagnoses in unselected real-world health-care records is unknown. We harmonised health records from four major European territories and assessed age- and sex-specific point prevalence and incidence of NAFLD over the past decade.MethodsData were extracted from The Health Improvement Network (UK), Health Search Database (Italy), Information System for Research in Primary Care (Spain) and Integrated Primary Care Information (Netherlands). Each database uses a different coding system. Prevalence and incidence estimates were pooled across databases by random-effects meta-analysis after a log-transformation.ResultsData were available for 17,669,973 adults, of which 176,114 had a recorded diagnosis of NAFLD. Pooled prevalence trebled from 0.60% in 2007 (95% confidence interval: 0.41–0.79) to 1.85% (0.91–2.79) in 2014. Incidence doubled from 1.32 (0.83–1.82) to 2.35 (1.29–3.40) per 1000 person-years. The FIB-4 non-invasive estimate of liver fibrosis could be calculated in 40.6% of patients, of whom 29.6–35.7% had indeterminate or high-risk scores.ConclusionsIn the largest primary-care record study of its kind to date, rates of recorded NAFLD are much lower than expected suggesting under-diagnosis and under-recording. Despite this, we have identified rising incidence and prevalence of the diagnosis. Improved recognition of NAFLD may identify people who will benefit from risk factor modification or emerging therapies to prevent progression to cardiometabolic and hepatic complications.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (10.1186/s12916-018-1103-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundAdministrative databases are widely available and have been extensively used to provide estimates of chronic disease prevalence for the purpose of surveillance of both geographical and temporal trends. There are, however, other sources of data available, such as medical records from primary care and national surveys. In this paper we compare disease prevalence estimates obtained from these three different data sources.MethodsData from general practitioners (GP) and administrative transactions for health services were collected from five Italian regions (Veneto, Emilia Romagna, Tuscany, Marche and Sicily) belonging to all the three macroareas of the country (North, Center, South). Crude prevalence estimates were calculated by data source and region for diabetes, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). For diabetes and COPD, prevalence estimates were also obtained from a national health survey. When necessary, estimates were adjusted for completeness of data ascertainment.ResultsCrude prevalence estimates of diabetes in administrative databases (range: from 4.8% to 7.1%) were lower than corresponding GP (6.2%-8.5%) and survey-based estimates (5.1%-7.5%). Geographical trends were similar in the three sources and estimates based on treatment were the same, while estimates adjusted for completeness of ascertainment (6.1%-8.8%) were slightly higher. For ischaemic heart disease administrative and GP data sources were fairly consistent, with prevalence ranging from 3.7% to 4.7% and from 3.3% to 4.9%, respectively. In the case of heart failure administrative estimates were consistently higher than GPs’ estimates in all five regions, the highest difference being 1.4% vs 1.1%. For COPD the estimates from administrative data, ranging from 3.1% to 5.2%, fell into the confidence interval of the Survey estimates in four regions, but failed to detect the higher prevalence in the most Southern region (4.0% in administrative data vs 6.8% in survey data). The prevalence estimates for COPD from GP data were consistently higher than the corresponding estimates from the other two sources.ConclusionThis study supports the use of data from Italian administrative databases to estimate geographic differences in population prevalence of ischaemic heart disease, treated diabetes, diabetes mellitus and heart failure. The algorithm for COPD used in this study requires further refinement.

ObjectivesThe Italian project MATRICE aimed to assess how well cases of type 2 diabetes (T2DM), hypertension, ischaemic heart disease (IHD) and heart failure (HF) and their levels of severity can be automatically extracted from the Health Search/CSD Longitudinal Patient Database (HSD). From the medical records of the general practitioners (GP) who volunteered to participate, cases were extracted by algorithms based on diagnosis codes, keywords, drug prescriptions and results of diagnostic tests. A random sample of identified cases was validated by interviewing their GPs.SettingHSD is a database of primary care medical records. A panel of 12 GPs participated in this validation study.Participants300 patients were sampled for each disease, except for HF, where 243 patients were assessed.Outcome measuresThe positive predictive value (PPV) was assessed for the presence/absence of each condition against the GP's response to the questionnaire, and Cohen's κ was calculated for agreement on the severity level.ResultsThe PPV was 100% (99% to 100%) for T2DM and hypertension, 98% (96% to 100%) for IHD and 55% (49% to 61%) for HF. Cohen's kappa for agreement on the severity level was 0.70 for T2DM and 0.69 for hypertension and IHD.ConclusionsThis study shows that individuals with T2DM, hypertension or IHD can be validly identified in HSD by automated identification algorithms. Automatic queries for levels of severity of the same diseases compare well with the corresponding clinical definitions, but some misclassification occurs. For HF, further research is needed to refine the current algorithm.