Suggestions of collapse in small herbivore cycles since the 1980s have raised concerns about the loss of essential ecosystem functions. Whether such phenomena are general and result from extrinsic environmental changes or from intrinsic process stochasticity is currently unknown. Using a large compilation of time series of vole abundances, we demonstrate consistent cycle amplitude dampening associated with a reduction in winter population growth, although regulatory processes responsible for cyclicity have not been lost. The underlying syndrome of change throughout Europe and grass-eating vole species suggests a common climatic driver. Increasing intervals of low-amplitude small herbivore population fluctuations are expected in the future, and these may have cascading impacts on trophic webs across ecosystems.

Summary1. Matrix population models are tools for elucidating the association between demographic processes and population dynamics. A large amount of useful theory pivots on the assumption of equilibrium dynamics. The preceding transient is, however, of genuine conservation concern as it encompasses the short-term impact of natural or anthropogenic disturbance on the population. 2. We review recent theoretical advances in deterministic transient analysis of matrix projection models, considering how disturbance can alter population dynamics by provoking a new population trajectory. 3. We illustrate these impacts using plant and vertebrate systems across contiguous and fragmented landscapes. 4. Short-term responses are of fundamental relevance for applied ecology, because the time-scale of transient effects is often similar to the length of many conservation projects. Investigation of the immediate, post-disturbance phase is vital for understanding how population processes respond to widespread disturbance in the short-and into the long term. 5. Synthesis and applications. Transient analysis is critical for understanding and predicting the consequences of management activities. By considering short-term population responses to perturbations, especially in long-lived species, managers can develop more informed strategies for species harvesting or controlling of invasive species.

Attempts to control predator numbers through spatially restricted culling typically faces a compensation process via immigration from surrounding source populations. To extend control effort to avoid this issue is in most instances impractical, both logistically and financially. Evidence-based strategy is therefore required to improve management practices. In close collaboration with local managers and hunters, we manipulated culling effort on red fox (Vulpes vulpes) over 5-6 years in 5 areas measuring 246 AE 53 km 2 . We estimated fox density in late February each year by spotlight counts with distance sampling and estimated reproductive performance by post-mortem examination of culled foxes. We then used mixed modeling to assess how culling rate (defined as foxes killed/foxes available) affected fox population growth from year to year, accounting for compensatory feedbacks. We found a strong compensatory density feedback acting through immigration, allowing red fox populations to resist high culling rates. Culling appeared ineffective at reducing late winter densities to below 25-32% of the estimated carrying capacity. On average, an annual culling rate equivalent to about 45% of the pre-breeding population was required to maintain density at 1 fox/ km 2 , given a carrying capacity of 1.5 foxes/km 2 , although there was considerable variation among sites. The required culling rate dropped to 25% if the culling could be performed during winter, after the fox dispersal period. In contrast, culling during the pre-dispersal breeding period was totally compensated for through immigration by the following February. Concentrating culling during the winter could improve the ability of practitioners to control year-to-year trends in fox numbers, taking into account site-specific carrying capacity. A winter strategy would also reduce the number of animals killed and hence the ethical and logistical costs of fox control, given limited financial and human resources. Our study illustrates how collaboration between local practitioners and scientists can make large-scale replicated management experiments achievable, leading to mutually approved guidelines. Ó 2015 The Wildlife Society.