BackgroundAsians have among the highest prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) or end-stage renal disease in the world. A risk score capable of identifying high risk individuals at the primary care level could allow targeted therapy to prevent future development of CKD. Risk scores for new CKD have been developed in US general populations, but the impact of various risks factors for development of CKD may differ in Asian subjects. In this study, we aimed to develop risk models and simplified risk scores to predict the development of decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) at 10 years in an Asian general population using readily obtainable clinical and laboratory parameters.MethodsEmployees of EGAT (The Electric Generating Authority of Thailand) were studied prospectively. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess risk factors and used to derive risk models and risk scores for developing decreased GFR at 10 years: Model 1 (Clinical only), Model 2 (Clinical + Limited laboratory tests), and Model 3 (Clinical + Full laboratory tests). The performance of the risk models or risk scores to predict incident cases with decreased GFR were evaluated by tests of calibration and discrimination.ResultsOf 3186 subjects with preserved GFR (eGFR ≥60) at baseline, 271 (8.5%) developed decreased GFR (eGFR < 60) at 10 years. Model 1 (Age, sex, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and waist circumference) had good performance (χ2 = 9.02; AUC = 0.72). Model 2 (Age, Sex, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, glomerular filtration rate) had better discrimination (χ2 = 10.87, AUC = 0.79) than Model 1. Model 3 (Model 2+ Uric acid, Hemoglobin) did not provide significant improvement over Model 2. Based on these findings, simplified categorical risk scores were developed for Models 1 and 2.ConclusionsClinical or combined clinical and laboratory risk models or risk scores using tests readily available in a resource-limited setting had good accuracy and discrimination power to estimate the 10-year probability of developing decreased GFR in a Thai general population. The benefits of the risk scores in identifying high risk individuals in the Thai or other Asian communities for special intervention requires further studies.Electronic supplementary materialThe online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12882-017-0653-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

BackgroundRecently, the Kidney Disease: Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) group recommended that patients with CKD should be assigned to stages and composite relative risk groups according to GFR (G) and proteinuria (A) criteria. Asians have among the highest rates of ESRD in the world, but establishing the prevalence and prognosis CKD is a problem for Asian populations since there is no consensus on the best GFR estimating (eGFR) equation. We studied the effects of the choice of new Asian and Caucasian eGFR equations on CKD prevalence, stage distribution, and risk categorization using the new KDIGO classification.MethodsThe prevalence of CKD and composite relative risk groups defined by eGFR from with Chronic Kidney Disease-Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI); standard (S) or Chinese(C) MDRD; Japanese CKD-EPI (J-EPI), Thai GFR (T-GFR) equations were compared in a Thai cohort (n = 5526)ResultsThere was a 7 fold difference in CKD3-5 prevalence between J-EPI and the other Asian eGFR formulae. CKD3-5 prevalence with S-MDRD and CKD-EPI were 2 - 3 folds higher than T-GFR or C-MDRD. The concordance with CKD-EPI to diagnose CKD3-5 was over 90% for T-GFR or C-MDRD, but they only assigned the same CKD stage in 50% of the time. The choice of equation also caused large variations in each composite risk groups especially those with mildly increased risks. Different equations can lead to a reversal of male: female ratios. The variability of different equations is most apparent in older subjects. Stage G3aA1 increased with age and accounted for a large proportion of the differences in CKD3-5 between CKD-EPI, S-MDRD and C-MDRD.ConclusionsCKD prevalence, sex ratios, and KDIGO composite risk groupings varied widely depending on the equation used. More studies are needed to define the best equation for Asian populations.

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