Founder analysis is a method for analysis of nonrecombining DNA sequence data, with the aim of identification and dating of migrations into new territory. The method picks out founder sequence types in potential source populations and dates lineage clusters deriving from them in the settlement zone of interest. Here, using mtDNA, we apply the approach to the colonization of Europe, to estimate the proportion of modern lineages whose ancestors arrived during each major phase of settlement. To estimate the Palaeolithic and Neolithic contributions to European mtDNA diversity more accurately than was previously achievable, we have now extended the Near Eastern, European, and northern-Caucasus databases to 1,234, 2,804, and 208 samples, respectively. Both back-migration into the source population and recurrent mutation in the source and derived populations represent major obstacles to this approach. We have developed phylogenetic criteria to take account of both these factors, and we suggest a way to account for multiple dispersals of common sequence types. We conclude that (i) there has been substantial back-migration into the Near East, (ii) the majority of extant mtDNA lineages entered Europe in several waves during the Upper Palaeolithic, (iii) there was a founder effect or bottleneck associated with the Last Glacial Maximum, 20,000 years ago, from which derives the largest fraction of surviving lineages, and (iv) the immigrant Neolithic component is likely to comprise less than one-quarter of the mtDNA pool of modern Europeans.

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Variation in CAPN10, the gene encoding the ubiquitously expressed cysteine protease calpain-10, has been associated with type 2 diabetes in Mexican Americans and in two northern-European populations, from Finland and Germany. We have studied CAPN10 in white subjects of British/Irish ancestry, using both family-based and case-control studies. In 743 sib pairs, there was no evidence of linkage at the CAPN10 locus, which thereby excluded it as a diabetes-susceptibility gene, with an overall sib recurrence risk, lambda(S), of 1.25. We examined four single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP-44, -43, -19, and -63) previously either associated with type 2 diabetes or implicated in transcriptional regulation of calpain-10 expression. We did not find any association between SNP-43, -19, and -63, either individually or as part of the previously described risk haplotypes. We did, however, observe significantly increased (P=.033) transmission of the less common C allele at SNP-44, to affected offspring in parents-offspring trios (odds ratio 1.6). An independent U.K. case-control study and a small discordant-sib study did not show significant association individually. In a combined analysis of all U.K. studies (P=.015) and in combination with a Mexican American study (P=.004), the C allele at SNP-44 is associated with type 2 diabetes. Sequencing of the coding region of CAPN10 in a group of U.K. subjects revealed four coding polymorphisms-L34V, T504A, R555C, and V666I. The T504A polymorphism was in perfect linkage disequilibrium with the diabetes-associated C allele at SNP-44, suggesting that the synthesis of a mutant protein and/or altered transcriptional regulation could contribute to diabetes risk. In conclusion, we were not able to replicate the association of the specific calpain-10 alleles identified by Horikawa et al. but suggest that other alleles at this locus may increase type 2 diabetes risk in the U.K. population.

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