Background A mechanistic understanding of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and diligent tracking of ongoing mutagenesis are of key importance to plan robust strategies for confining its transmission. Large numbers of available sequences and their dates of transmission provide an unprecedented opportunity to analyze evolutionary adaptation in novel ways. Addition of high-resolution structural information can reveal the functional basis of these processes at the molecular level. Integrated systems biology-directed analyses of these data layers afford valuable insights to build a global understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic. Results Here we identify globally distributed haplotypes from 15,789 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and model their success based on their duration, dispersal, and frequency in the host population. Our models identify mutations that are likely compensatory adaptive changes that allowed for rapid expansion of the virus. Functional predictions from structural analyses indicate that, contrary to previous reports, the Asp614Gly mutation in the spike glycoprotein (S) likely reduced transmission and the subsequent Pro323Leu mutation in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase led to the precipitous spread of the virus. Our model also suggests that two mutations in the nsp13 helicase allowed for the adaptation of the virus to the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Finally, our explainable artificial intelligence algorithm identified a mutational hotspot in the sequence of S that also displays a signature of positive selection and may have implications for tissue or cell-specific expression of the virus. Conclusions These results provide valuable insights for the development of drugs and surveillance strategies to combat the current and future pandemics.

Despite SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 being equipped with highly similar protein arsenals, the corresponding zoonoses have spread among humans at extremely different rates. The specific characteristics of these viruses that led to such distinct outcomes remain unclear. Here, we apply proteome-wide comparative structural analysis aiming to identify the unique molecular elements in the SARS-CoV-2 proteome that may explain the differing consequences. By combining protein modeling and molecular dynamics simulations, we suggest non-conservative substitutions in functional regions of the spike glycoprotein (S), nsp1, and nsp3 that are contributing to differences in virulence. Particularly, we explain why the substitutions at the receptor-binding domain of S affect the structure-dynamics behavior in complexes with putative host receptors. Conservation of functional protein regions within the two taxa is also noteworthy. We suggest that the highly conserved main protease, nsp5, of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 is part of their mechanism of circumventing the host interferon antiviral response. Overall, most substitutions occur on the protein surfaces and may be modulating their antigenic properties and interactions with other macromolecules. Our results imply that the striking difference in the pervasiveness of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV among humans seems to significantly derive from molecular features that modulate the efficiency of viral particles in entering the host cells and blocking the host immune response.

Using a Systems Biology approach, we integrated genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and molecular structure information to provide a holistic understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic. The expression data analysis of the Renin Angiotensin System indicates mild nasal, oral or throat infections are likely and that the gastrointestinal tissues are a common primary target of SARS-CoV-2. Extreme symptoms in the lower respiratory system likely result from a secondary-infection possibly by a comorbidity-driven upregulation of ACE2 in the lung. The remarkable differences in expression of other RAS elements, the elimination of macrophages and the activation of cytokines in COVID-19 bronchoalveolar samples suggest that a functional immune deficiency is a critical outcome of COVID-19. We posit that using a non-respiratory system as a major pathway of infection is likely determining the unprecedented global spread of this coronavirus.