To examine, the predictors of incident chronic kidney disease (CKD) in a community-based cohort of Middle East population, during a mean follow-up of 9.9 years. In a sample of 3313 non-CKD Iranian adults ≥20 years the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated at baseline and at three year intervals during three consecutive phases. The eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m2 was defined as CKD. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent variables associated with incident CKD. The incidence density rates of CKD were 285.3 and 132.6 per 10,000 person-year, among women and men, respectively. Female gender per se was associated with higher risk of CKD, compared with males. Among women, age, eGFR, known diabetes, being single or divorced/widowed, hypertension (marginally significant) and current smoking were independent risk factors for CKD; however the intermediate degree of education and family history of diabetes decreased the risk by 40% (P<0.05). Among male subjects, independent predictors of developing CKD included aging and hypertension (with significantly higher risk than in women, P for interaction<0.05), eGFR, new diagnosed diabetes, high normal blood pressure; abdominal obesity decreased the risk of CKD about 30% which was marginally significant. In the Iranian population,>2% of individuals develops CKD each year. Our findings confirmed that sex- specific risk predictors should be considered in primary prevention for incident CKD.

Background: Untreated NAFLD may have significant consequences including an increase in mortality and cardiovascular injury. Thus, early detection of NAFLD is currently believed not only to prevent liver related but also cardiovascular mortality. However, almost nothing is known about co-existing NAFLD in patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). Aims: We investigated the impact of surrogates scores of fibrosis in NAFLD in a large cohort of patients referred to coronary angiography. Results: Modelling the common NALFD and fibrosis scores FIB-4 and NFS as splines revealed significant associations with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality when Cox regression models were only adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors that were not already included in the calculation of the scores. Stratifying the scores into quartiles yielded hazard ratios (95% CI) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality for the 4th quartile vs the 1st quartile of 2.28 (1.90-2.75) and 2.11 (1.67-2.67) for FIB-4 and of 3.21 (2.61-3.94) and 3.12 (2.41-4.04) for NFS. However, we did not observe an independent association of FIB-4 or NFS with overall or cardiovascular mortality in our prospective CAD cohort after full adjustment for all cardiovascular risk factors (all-cause mortality HR 1.13 (0.904-1.41) and 1.17 (0.903-1.52); cardiovascular mortality HR 1.06 (0.8-1.41) and 1.02 (0.738-1.41). Thus, neither FIB-4 nor NFS, as surrogate markers for NAFLD/NASH, were independent risk factors for overall or cardiovascular mortality in patients with CAD. Conclusion: Our data shows that surrogate risk scores for NAFLD-related fibrosis do not add information in assessing the CVD events in patients with CAD proven by angiography.