Despite the success of monotherapies based on blockade of programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) in human melanoma, most patients do not experience durable clinical benefit. Pre-existing T-cell infiltration and/or the presence of PD-L1 in tumours may be used as indicators of clinical response; however, blood-based profiling to understand the mechanisms of PD-1 blockade has not been widely explored. Here we use immune profiling of peripheral blood from patients with stage IV melanoma before and after treatment with the PD-1-targeting antibody pembrolizumab and identify pharmacodynamic changes in circulating exhausted-phenotype CD8 T cells (Tex cells). Most of the patients demonstrated an immunological response to pembrolizumab. Clinical failure in many patients was not solely due to an inability to induce immune reinvigoration, but rather resulted from an imbalance between T-cell reinvigoration and tumour burden. The magnitude of reinvigoration of circulating Tex cells determined in relation to pretreatment tumour burden correlated with clinical response. By focused profiling of a mechanistically relevant circulating T-cell subpopulation calibrated to pretreatment disease burden, we identify a clinically accessible potential on-treatment predictor of response to PD-1 blockade.

SUMMARY Exhausted CD8+ T cells (TEX) in chronic infections and cancer have limited effector function, high inhibitory receptor co-expression and extensive transcriptional changes compared to effector (TEFF) or memory (TMEM) CD8+ T cells. TEX are important clinical targets of checkpoint blockade and other immunotherapies. Epigenetically, TEX are a distinct immune subset, with a unique chromatin landscape compared to TEFF and TMEM. However, the mechanisms governing the transcriptional and epigenetic development of TEX remain unknown. Here, we identify the HMG-box transcription factor TOX as a central regulator of TEX. TOX is largely dispensable for TEFF and TMEM formation, but is critical for exhaustion and without TOX TEX do not form. TOX is induced by calcineurin and NFAT2 and operates in a feed-forward loop to become calcineurin independent and sustained in TEX. Thus, robust TOX expression results in commitment to TEX by translating persistent stimulation into a distinct TEX transcriptional and epigenetic developmental program.

Blocking Programmed Death–1 (PD-1) can reinvigorate exhausted CD8 Tcells (TEX) and improve control of chronic infections and cancer. However, whether blocking PD-1 can reprogram TEX into durable memory Tcells (TMEM) is unclear. We found that reinvigoration of TEX in mice by PD-L1 blockade caused minimal memory development. After blockade, reinvigorated TEX became reexhausted if antigen concentration remained high and failed to become TMEM upon antigen clearance. TEX acquired an epigenetic profile distinct from that of effector Tcells (TEFF) and TMEM cells that was minimally remodeled after PD-L1 blockade. This finding suggests that TEX are a distinct lineage of CD8 Tcells. Nevertheless, PD-1 pathway blockade resulted in transcriptional rewiring and reengagement of effector circuitry in the TEX epigenetic landscape. These data indicate that epigenetic fate inflexibility may limit current immunotherapies.