Background Multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is increasingly used to diagnose prostate cancer (PCa). It is not yet established whether all men with negative MRI (Prostate Imaging-Reporting and Data System version 2 score <3) should undergo prostate biopsy or not. Objective To develop and validate a prediction model that uses clinical parameters to reduce unnecessary prostate biopsies by predicting PCa and clinically significant PCa (csPCa) for men with negative MRI findings who are at risk of harboring PCa. Design, setting, and participants This was a retrospective analysis of 200 men with negative MRI at risk of PCa who underwent prostate biopsy (2014–2020) with prostate-specific antigen (PSA) >4 ng/ml, 4Kscore of >7%, PSA density ≥0.15 ng/ml/cm 3 , and/or suspicious digital rectal examination. The validation cohort included 182 men from another centre (University of Miami) with negative MRI who underwent systematic prostate biopsy with the same criteria. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis csPCa was defined as Gleason grade group ≥2 on biopsy. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed using coefficients of logit function for predicting PCa and csPCa. Nomogram validation was performed by calculating the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) and comparing nomogram-predicted probabilities with actual rates of PCa and csPCa. Results and limitations Of 200 men in the development cohort, 18% showed PCa and 8% showed csPCa on biopsy. Of 182 men in the validation cohort, 21% showed PCa and 6% showed csPCa on biopsy. PSA density, 4Kscore, and family history of PCa were significant predictors for PCa and csPCa. The AUC was 0.80 and 0.87 for prediction of PCa and csPCa, respectively. There was agreement between predicted and actual rates of PCa in the validation cohort. Using the prediction model at threshold of 40, 47% of benign biopsies and 15% of indolent PCa cases diagnosed could be avoided, while missing 10% of csPCa cases. The small sample size and number of events are limitations of the study. Conclusions Our prediction model can reduce the number of prostate biopsies among men with negative MRI without compromising the detection of csPCa. Patient summary We developed a tool for selection of men with negative MRI (magnetic resonance imaging) findings for prostate cancer who should undergo prostate biopsy. This risk prediction tool safely reduces the number of men who need to undergo the procedure.

Background: Efforts are ongoing to try and find ways to reduce the number of unnecessary prostate biopsies without missing clinically significant prostate cancers (csPCa).The utility of multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) in detecting prostate cancer (PCa) shows promise to be used as triage test for systematic prostate biopsy. Our aim is to Study clinical parameters and oncological outcomes in men with negative mpMRI (nMRI; PI-RADS v2 scores of ≤ 2) who underwent robot-assisted radical prostatectomy (RARP) to evaluate nMRI's practicality as a biopsy triage test.Methods: Retrospective analysis of 331 men with nMRI who underwent RARP between 2014 and 2020 compared with men with positive mpMRI (pMRI; PI-RADS v2 scores ≥ 3, N = 1770). csPCa was defined as Gleason score ≥ 3 + 4 and biochemical recurrence (BCR) was defined as PSA > 0.2 ng/ml on two occasions. Biopsies were graded with the International Society of Urologic Pathology [ISUP] grade. Descriptive statistics for nMRI and pMRI were performed. Mann-Whitney U test was used for continuous variables and χ 2 for categorical variables. Univariable and multivariable regression analyses were performed.Results: Univariable analysis shows statistically significant difference (p < .05) between median age (nMRI-61 years vs. pMRI 63 years), race (higher incidence of nMRI in African American men), use of 5-alpha reductase inhibitors (higher rate in nMRI). While incidence rates of family history of PCa, suspicious digital rectal examination (DRE) findings, median PSA levels and 4Kscore, were lower in nMRI versus pMRI. Rates of positive surgical margins and BCR were comparable in nMRI versus pMRI. Biopsy ISUP Grades I and II upgraded by 51% and 12%, respectively in final pathology. African American race and no history of the prior negative biopsy were significant predictors for upgrading. Conclusion:Men with nMRI pose diagnostic challenges as they tend to be younger patients with lower rates of suspicious DRE findings and lower 4K scores, yet comparable oncological outcomes in csPCa rates, positive surgical margins, and BCR rates.

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