The abrupt temperature change (ATC) and warming hiatus (WH) phenomena impact global resources and the environment. However, information on the spatial and temporal variability in the ATC and WH over large regions, long time scales and densely distributed stations is lacking. In the study, based on average minimum, average and average maximum temperatures data from 1951 to 2016 from 622 meteorological stations in China, the spatial and temporal variability in the timing of the ATC and WH events and the characteristics before and after these events were revealed by using the Mann-Kendall test.In most areas of China, an ATC occurred in the three temperature parameters, and the onset of the changes occurred later at lower latitudes. The ATC in the average minimum temperature occurred earlier than that in the average temperature, and the ATC in the average maximum temperature occurred the latest. After the ATC, a WH occurred at most of the stations that experienced an increase in temperature, whereas a cooling hiatus (CH) did not occur at stations that experienced a decrease in temperature. The regions with decreasing temperatures were concentrated in the hilly and plain areas of southern China and in subtropical and tropical monsoon climate zones. The WH of the average temperature occurred earlier than that of the average maximum temperature, which occurred earlier than that of the average minimum temperature. Overall, the WH began later from east to west and was mainly concentrated in approximately 1998 and 2007. Both the ATC and the WH in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area showed hysteresis. The ATC to WH period was between three and 27 years, and the earlier the ATC was, the longer was the period. Before the ATC, all three temperature parameters increased slightly. The average minimum temperature rose faster than the average temperature, and the average maximum temperature rose the slowest. Furthermore, the variation became more dramatic from southeast to northwest. After the ATC, the temperatures in most areas increased rapidly, and the rate of temperature increase
The mechanism of the abrupt temperature change‐climate warming hiatus is not clear, and understanding the response relationships between it and the influencing factors is significant to the study the mechanism. Based on the annual average temperature (Tave), annual average minimum temperature (Tmin), and annual average maximum temperature (Tmax) of 622 meteorological stations in China from 1951 to 2018, the response relationships between the three temperatures and the influencing factors were analyzed. The results showed that In the periods before, during, and after an abrupt temperature change, For the abrupt changes in the three temperatures, the regions significantly influenced by the solar radiation (SR), AMO, multivariate El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) accounted for more than 80% of China, and for the abrupt changes in Tmin, the regions with significant influences covered the whole of China. The regions significantly influenced by the AO accounted for more than 60% of China, and the regions significantly influenced by the remaining factors accounted for more than 30% of China. The AO mainly influenced the abrupt temperature change in the northern regions, the AGG and CO2 mainly influenced all the regions except for Northeast China, and the influencing scopes of the atmospheric pressure (AP) were relatively small and not concentrated. In summary, when some conditions continued for a period and a tendency rate or value was reached, abrupt temperature change occurred, and the conditions were as follows: the AGG continued to increase, the PDO was in a positive phase, the AMO and SR continued to rise, the MEI changed abruptly, and the AP in each zone continued to decline/increase and experienced the subsequent trend change. In the periods before, during, and after the climate warming hiatus, few influencing factors had a significant correlation with the temperatures. The MEI and PDO influenced more than 80% of the regions that experienced the climate warming hiatus, and other factors influenced less than 60% of these regions. In the 1990s, especially after 1998, the increase in the AGG slowed, the PDO declined or was in a negative phase, the MEI and SR decreased, and the AP in each zone continued to decline/increase and experienced the subsequent trend change; when those conditions continued for a period and a tendency rate or value was reached, the climate warming hiatus occurred. The abrupt temperature change‐climate warming hiatus was the result of the joint action of multiple influencing factors.
Determining the response of abrupt temperature changes/warming hiatuses to changes in their influencing factors can provide a reference for investigating their mechanism. The present study, using the Mann–Kendall test, based on data (including average minimum temperature (Tmin), average temperature (Tave) and average maximum temperature (Tmax)) recorded at 357 meteorological stations in northern China and its surrounding regions as well as large‐spatial‐scale data (e.g. Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), global radiative forcing of CO2 (RFCO2) and radiative forcing of annual greenhouse gases (RFAGG)) for the period 1951–2016, the characteristics of abrupt temperature changes/warming hiatuses and their response to their influencing factors were qualitatively and quantitatively determined. The following results were obtained. Overall, from the late 1970s to the 1990s, as the RFAGG continuously increased, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) remained in a positive phase, the AMO and total solar radiation (SR) continuously increased, the multivariate El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) changed abruptly, the wind speed (WS), atmospheric pressure (AP) and relative humidity (RH) in each zone continuously decreased/increased, their trends changing subsequently, and abrupt changes in the three temperature metrics (i.e. the Tmin, Tave and Tmax) occurred in each zone during the period 1977–2004. Similarly, in the 1990s, particularly after 1998, as the increase in the AMO slowed, the PDO was in either a positive phase but exhibited a decreasing trend or a negative phase, the MEI and SR decreased, the WS, AP and RH decreased/increased, with subsequent changes in trends, and warming hiatuses occurred. The sensitivities of the responses of the Tmin to changes in the three types of influencing factors were the highest, followed by those of the Tave and Tmax. The effects of various influencing factors on the three kinds of temperature change and warming hiatus have strong spatial and temporal differences. As a result, there was a strong spatial difference in the year of the abrupt temperature change and the warming hiatus.
Abrupt temperature changes and warming (cooling) hiatuses have an impact on the ecological environment. Currently, research findings for the spatial variability in the years of abrupt temperature changes and warming (cooling) hiatuses covering a variety of climate zones, as well as the variation trends before and after these years, are lacking. In the present study, based on the seasonal (monthly) average minimum temperatures, average temperatures, and average maximum temperature data from 622 Chinese meteorological stations during 1951–2018, the spatial variability in the years of abrupt seasonal changes and warming (cooling) hiatuses for these three temperature types in China, as well as the variation trends before and after these years, were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test. The results are as follows. For most stations in China, the abrupt changes in the three temperature types during each season began to occur over a wide range in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and abrupt changes did not occur at a few stations concentrated south of 30° N. After an abrupt change occurred, the average minimum temperatures and average temperatures both showed significant upward trends, while the average maximum temperatures showed significant downward trends in some regions of southern China. After five to 15 years of temperature increases (decreases) following the abrupt changes, warming (cooling) hiatuses occurred in some areas of China, with the hiatus years occurring between 1989 and 2013. These hiatuses mainly occurred in 1998 and 2007, and in terms of proximity, the stations without warming (cooling) hiatuses were concentrated south of 40° N. After nine to 17 years of warming (cooling) hiatuses, the hiatuses ended at some stations between 2013 and 2017, after which the temperatures again increased rapidly. The periods of warming (cooling) hiatuses were longer in northern China than in southern China. Currently, there are some stations where the hiatuses have not ended, suggesting that the hiatus period is apparently longer than 17 years. The years of abrupt change, no abrupt change, hiatus, no hiatus, end of hiatus, and no end of hiatus, as well as their variation trends before and after these years, have shown strong spatial variability. The results of this study have enriched the research findings on climate change.
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