89Background: Evidence from nationally representative studies in low-and middle-income 90 countries (LMICs) on where patients are lost in the hypertension care continuum is sparse. This 91 information, however, is essential for the effective design and targeting of health services 92 interventions, and to assess progress in improving hypertension care. This study aimed to 93 determine the cascade of hypertension care in 44 LMICs -and its variation between countries 94 and population groups -by dividing the progression from need to successful treatment into 95 discrete stages and measuring the losses at each stage. 96 Methods:We pooled individual-level population-based data collected between 2005 and 2016 97 from 44 LMICs. Hypertension was defined as systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥140 mmHg or 98 diastolic BP ≥90 mmHg or reporting use of medication for hypertension. Among those with 99 hypertension, we calculated the proportion who had i) ever had their BP measured, ii) been 100 diagnosed, iii) been treated, and iv) achieved control. We disaggregated the hypertension care 101 cascade by age, sex, education, household wealth quintile, body mass index, smoking status, 102 country, and region. We used linear regression to predict -separately for each cascade step -a 103 country's performance based on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, allowing us to identify 104 countries whose performance fell outside of the 95% prediction interval. 105 Findings: 1,100,507 participants were included of whom 192,441 (17.5%) had hypertension. 106 73.6% (95% CI, 72.9 -74.3) of those with hypertension ever had their BP measured, 39.2% 107 (95% CI, 38.2 -40.3) were diagnosed, 29.9% (95% CI, 28.6 -31.3) received treatment, and 108 10.3% (95% CI, 9.6 -11.0) achieved control. Countries in Latin America and the Caribbean 109 generally achieved the highest performance, while those in sub-Saharan Africa performed worst. 110 Bangladesh, Brazil, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Kyrgyzstan, and Peru performed significantly better on Funding: Harvard McLennan Family Fund 122 Research in context 123

Background The prevalence of diabetes is increasing rapidly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), urgently requiring detailed evidence to guide the response of health systems to this epidemic. In an effort to understand at what step in the diabetes care continuum individuals are lost to care, and how this varies between countries and population groups, this study examined health system performance for diabetes among adults in 28 LMICs using a cascade of care approach. Methods and findings We pooled individual participant data from nationally representative surveys done between 2008 and 2016 in 28 LMICs. Diabetes was defined as fasting plasma glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l (126 mg/dl), random plasma glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l (200 mg/dl), HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, or reporting to be taking medication for diabetes. Stages of the care cascade were as follows: tested, diagnosed, lifestyle advice and/or medication given (“treated”), and controlled (HbA1c < 8.0% or equivalent). We stratified cascades of care by country, geographic region, World Bank income group, and individual-level characteristics (age, sex, educational attainment, household wealth quintile, and body mass index [BMI]). We then used logistic regression models with country-level fixed effects to evaluate predictors of (1) testing, (2) treatment, and (3) control. The final sample included 847,413 adults in 28 LMICs (8 low income, 9 lower-middle income, 11 upper-middle income). Survey sample size ranged from 824 in Guyana to 750,451 in India. The prevalence of diabetes was 8.8% (95% CI: 8.2%–9.5%), and the prevalence of undiagnosed diabetes was 4.8% (95% CI: 4.5%–5.2%). Health system performance for management of diabetes showed large losses to care at the stage of being tested, and low rates of diabetes control. Total unmet need for diabetes care (defined as the sum of those not tested, tested but undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and treated but with diabetes not controlled) was 77.0% (95% CI: 74.9%–78.9%). Performance along the care cascade was significantly better in upper-middle income countries, but across all World Bank income groups, only half of participants with diabetes who were tested achieved diabetes control. Greater age, educational attainment, and BMI were associated with higher odds of being tested, being treated, and achieving control. The limitations of this study included the use of a single glucose measurement to assess diabetes, differences in the approach to wealth measurement across surveys, and variation in the date of the surveys. Conclusions The study uncovered poor management of diabetes along the care cascade, indicating large unmet need for diabetes care across 28 LMICs. Performance across the care cascade varied by World Bank income group and individual-level characteristics, particularly age, educational attainment, and BMI. This policy-relevant analysis can inform country-specific interventions and offers a baseline by which future progress can be measured.

The coronavirus-19 pandemic and its secondary effects threaten the continuity of essential health services delivery, which may lead to worsened population health and a protracted public health crisis. We quantify such disruptions, focusing on maternal and child health, in eight sub-Saharan countries. Service volumes are extracted from administrative systems for 63 954 facilities in eight countries: Cameroon, Democratic Republic of Congo, Liberia, Malawi, Mali, Nigeria, Sierra Leone and Somalia. Using an interrupted time series design and an ordinary least squares regression model with facility-level fixed effects, we analyze data from January 2018 to February 2020 to predict what service utilization levels would have been in March–July 2020 in the absence of the pandemic, accounting for both secular trends and seasonality. Estimates of disruption are derived by comparing the predicted and observed service utilization levels during the pandemic period. All countries experienced service disruptions for at least 1 month, but the magnitude and duration of the disruptions vary. Outpatient consultations and child vaccinations were the most commonly affected services and fell by the largest margins. We estimate a cumulative shortfall of 5 149 491 outpatient consultations and 328 961 third-dose pentavalent vaccinations during the 5 months in these eight countries. Decreases in maternal health service utilization are less generalized, although significant declines in institutional deliveries, antenatal care and postnatal care were detected in some countries. There is a need to better understand the factors determining the magnitude and duration of such disruptions in order to design interventions that would respond to the shortfall in care. Service delivery modifications need to be both highly contextualized and integrated as a core component of future epidemic response and planning.

BackgroundThe aim of this study is to estimate the immediate and lasting effects of the 2014–2015 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak on public-sector primary healthcare delivery in Liberia using 7 years of comprehensive routine health information system data.Methods and findingsWe analyzed 10 key primary healthcare indicators before, during, and after the EVD outbreak using 31,836 facility-month service outputs from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2016 across a census of 379 public-sector health facilities in Liberia (excluding Montserrado County). All indicators had statistically significant decreases during the first 4 months of the EVD outbreak, with all indicators having their lowest raw mean outputs in August 2014. Decreases in outputs comparing the end of the initial EVD period (September 2014) to May 2014 (pre-EVD) ranged in magnitude from a 67.3% decrease in measles vaccinations (95% CI: −77.9%, −56.8%, p < 0.001) and a 61.4% decrease in artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) treatments for malaria (95% CI: −69.0%, −53.8%, p < 0.001) to a 35.2% decrease in first antenatal care (ANC) visits (95% CI: −45.8%, −24.7%, p < 0.001) and a 38.5% decrease in medroxyprogesterone acetate doses (95% CI: −47.6%, −29.5%, p < 0.001). Following the nadir of system outputs in August 2014, all indicators showed statistically significant increases from October 2014 to December 2014. All indicators had significant positive trends during the post-EVD period, with every system output exceeding pre-Ebola forecasted trends for 3 consecutive months by November 2016. Health system outputs lost during and after the EVD outbreak were large and sustained for most indicators. Prior to exceeding pre-EVD forecasted trends for 3 months, we estimate statistically significant cumulative losses of −776,110 clinic visits (95% CI: −1,480,896, −101,357, p = 0.030); −24,449 bacille Calmette–Guérin vaccinations (95% CI: −45,947, −2,020, p = 0.032); −9,129 measles vaccinations (95% CI: −12,312, −5,659, p < 0.001); −17,191 postnatal care (PNC) visits within 6 weeks of birth (95% CI: −28,344, −5,775, p = 0.002); and −101,857 ACT malaria treatments (95% CI: −205,839, −2,139, p = 0.044) due to the EVD outbreak. Other outputs showed statistically significant cumulative losses only through December 2014, including losses of −12,941 first pentavalent vaccinations (95% CI: −20,309, −5,527, p = 0.002); −5,122 institutional births (95% CI: −8,767, −1,234, p = 0.003); and −45,024 acute respiratory infections treated (95% CI: −66,185, −24,019, p < 0.001). Compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, medroxyprogesterone acetate doses and first ANC visits did not show statistically significant net losses. ACT treatment for malaria was the only indicator with an estimated net increase in system outputs through December 2016, showing an excess of +78,583 outputs (95% CI: −309,417, +450,661, p = 0.634) compared to pre-EVD forecasted trends, although this increase was not statistically significant. However, comparing December 2013 to December 2017, ACT malaria cases h...

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