Accurate prediction for the prognosis of patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) is a emerge task nowadays. We aimed to develop survival models for postoperative PC patients, based on a novel algorithm, random survival forest (RSF), traditional Cox regression and neural networks (Deepsurv), using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) database. A total of 3988 patients were included in this study. Eight clinicopathological features were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis and were utilized to develop the RSF model. The model was evaluated based on three dimensions: discrimination, calibration, and clinical benefit. It found that the RSF model predicted the cancer-specific survival (CSS) of the postoperative PC patients with a c-index of 0.723, which was higher than the models built by Cox regression (0.670) and Deepsurv (0.700). The Brier scores at 1, 3, and 5 years (0.188, 0.177, and 0.131) of the RSF model demonstrated the model’s favorable calibration and the decision curve analysis illustrated the model’s value of clinical implement. Moreover, the roles of the key variables were visualized in the Shapley Additive Explanations plotting. Lastly, the prediction model demonstrates value in risk stratification and individual prognosis. In this study, a high-performance prediction model for PC postoperative prognosis was developed, based on RSF The model presented significant strengths in the risk stratification and individual prognosis prediction.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common chronic liver disease worldwide. The mechanisms involved in NAFLD onset are complicated and multifactorial. Recent literature has indicated that altered intestinal barrier function is related to the occurrence and progression of liver disease. The intestinal barrier is important for absorbing nutrients and electrolytes and for defending against toxins and antigens in the enteric environment. Major mechanisms by which the intestinal barrier influences the development of NAFLD involve the altered epithelial layer, decreased intracellular junction integrity, and increased intestinal barrier permeability. Increased intestinal permeability leads to luminal dysbiosis and allows the translocation of pathogenic bacteria and metabolites into the liver, inducing inflammation, immune response, and hepatocyte injury in NAFLD. Although research has been directed to NAFLD in recent decades, the pathophysiological changes in NAFLD initiation and progression are still not completely understood, and the therapeutic targets remain limited. A deeper understanding on the correlation between NAFLD pathogenesis and intestinal barrier regulation must be attained. Therefore, in this review, the components of the intestinal barrier and their respective functions and disruptions during the progression of NAFLD are discussed.

BackgroundMachine learning (ML) algorithms are widely applied in building models of medicine due to their powerful studying and generalizing ability. This study aims to explore different ML models for early identification of severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) among patients hospitalized for acute pancreatitis.MethodsThis retrospective study enrolled patients with acute pancreatitis (AP) from multiple centers. Data from the First Affiliated Hospital and Changshu No. 1 Hospital of Soochow University were adopted for training and internal validation, and data from the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University were adopted for external validation from January 2017 to December 2021. The diagnosis of AP and SAP was based on the 2012 revised Atlanta classification of acute pancreatitis. Models were built using traditional logistic regression (LR) and automated machine learning (AutoML) analysis with five types of algorithms. The performance of models was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the calibration curve, and the decision curve analysis (DCA) based on LR and feature importance, SHapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) Plot, and Local Interpretable Model Agnostic Explanation (LIME) based on AutoML.ResultsA total of 1,012 patients were included in this study to develop the AutoML models in the training/validation dataset. An independent dataset of 212 patients was used to test the models. The model developed by the gradient boost machine (GBM) outperformed other models with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.937 in the validation set and an AUC of 0.945 in the test set. Furthermore, the GBM model achieved the highest sensitivity value of 0.583 among these AutoML models. The model developed by eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) achieved the highest specificity value of 0.980 and the highest accuracy of 0.958 in the test set.ConclusionsThe AutoML model based on the GBM algorithm for early prediction of SAP showed evident clinical practicability.

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