We examined the association between the consumption of ultra-processed foods and adiposity in a nationally representative sample of the UK adult population. We studied 6,143 participants (19 to 96 years, 51.6% female) sampled by the UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008-16). Food items reported in four-day food diary were classified according to the NOVA system. Multiple linear and logistic regressions were used to evaluate associations between the dietary contribution of ultra-processed foods (sexspecific quartile and continuous) and Body Mass Index (BMI), Waist Circumference (WC) and obesity (BMI>30kg/m 2) and abdominal obesity (men: WC�102cm, women: WC�88cm) status. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. In multivariable analyses, the highest consumption of ultra-processed food was associated with 1.66 kg/m 2 higher BMI (95%CI 0.96-2.36), 3.56 cm greater WC (95%CI 1.79-5.33) and 90% higher odds for being obese (OR = 1.90, 95%CI 1.39-2.61), compared with the lowest consumption. A 10% increase in the consumption of ultra-processed foods was associated with an increase of 0.38 kg/m 2 in BMI (95%CI 0.20-0.55), 0.87 cm in WC (95%CI 0.40-1.33) and 18% higher odds of being obese (OR = 1.18, 95%CI 1.08-1.28). The consumption of ultra-processed food was associated with an increase in BMI, WC and prevalence of obesity in both sexes. A dose response relationship was observed in both sexes, with a 10% increase in the consumption of ultra-processed foods being associated with a 18% increase in the prevalence of obesity in men and a 17% increase in women. Higher consumption of ultra-processed food is associated with greater adiposity in the UK adult population. Policy makers should consider actions that promote consumption of unprocessed or minimally processed foods and reduce consumption of ultra-processed foods.

Objective The objective of this study was to examine the associations between ultra-processed food consumption and risk of obesity among UK adults. Methods Participants aged 40–69 years at recruitment in the UK Biobank (2006–2019) with dietary intakes collected using 24-h recall and repeated measures of adiposity––body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and percentage of body fat (% BF)––were included (N = 22,659; median follow-up: 5 years). Ultra-processed foods were identified using the NOVA classification and their consumption was expressed as a percentage of total energy intake. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) of several indicators of obesity according to ultra-processed food consumption. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. Results 947 incident cases of overall obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and 1900 incident cases of abdominal obesity (men: WC ≥ 102 cm, women: WC ≥ 88 cm) were identified during follow-up. Participants in the highest quartile of ultra-processed food consumption had significantly higher risk of developing overall obesity (HR 1.79; 95% CI 1.06─3.03) and abdominal obesity (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.14─1.48). They had higher risk of experiencing a ≥ 5% increase in BMI (HR 1.31; 95% CI 1.20─1.43), WC (HR 1.35; 95% CI 1.25─1.45) and %BF (HR 1.14; 95% CI 1.03─1.25), than those in the lowest quartile of consumption. Conclusions Our findings provide evidence that higher consumption of ultra-processed food is strongly associated with a higher risk of multiple indicators of obesity in the UK adult population. Policy makers should consider actions that promote consumption of fresh or minimally processed foods and reduce consumption of ultra-processed foods.

Background Economic recession might worsen health in low-income and middle-income countries with precarious job markets and weak social protection systems. Between 2014-16, a major economic crisis occurred in Brazil. We aimed to assess the association between economic recession and adult mortality in Brazil and to ascertain whether health and social welfare programmes in the country had a protective effect against the negative impact of this recession. MethodsIn this longitudinal analysis, we obtained data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics, the Ministry of Social Development and Fight Against Hunger, and the Information System for the Public Budget in Health to assess changes in state unemployment level and mortality among adults (aged ≥15 years) in Brazil between 2012 and 2017. Outcomes were municipal all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates for all adults and across population subgroups stratified by age, sex, and race. We used fixed-effect panel regression models with quarterly timepoints to assess the association between recession and changes in mortality. Mortality and unemployment rates were detrended using Hodrick-Prescott filters to assess cyclical variation and control for underlying trends. We tested interactions between unemployment and terciles of municipal social protection and health-care expenditure to assess whether the relationship between unemployment and mortality varied. Findings Between 2012 and 2017, 7 069 242 deaths were recorded among adults (aged ≥15 years) in 5565 municipalities in Brazil. During this time period, the mean crude municipal adult mortality rate increased by 8•0% from 143•1 deaths per 100 000 in 2012 to 154•5 deaths per 100 000 in 2017. An increase in unemployment rate of 1 percentage-point was associated with a 0•50 increase per 100 000 population per rter (95% CI 0•09-0•91) in allcause mortality, mainly due to cancer and cardiovascular disease. Between 2012 and 2017, higher unemployment accounted for 31 415 excess deaths (95% CI 29 698-33 132). All-cause mortality increased among black or mixed race (pardo) Brazilians (a 0•46 increase [95% CI 0•15-0•80]), men (0•67 [0•22-1•13]), and individuals aged 30-59 years (0•43 [0•16-0•69] per 1 percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate. No significant association was identified between unemployment and all-cause mortality for white Brazilian, women, adolescents (aged 15-29 years), or older and retired individuals (aged ≥60 years). In municipalities with high expenditure on health and social protection programmes, no significant increases in recession-related mortality were observed.Interpretation The Brazilian recession contributed to increases in mortality. However, health and social protection expenditure seemed to mitigate detrimental health effects, especially among vulnerable populations. This evidence provides support for stronger health and social protection systems globally.