SRTR uses data collected by OPTN to calculate metrics such as donation rate, organ yield, and rate of organs recovered for transplant but not transplanted. In 2019, there were 11,870 deceased donors, an increase from 10,721 in 2018; this number has been increasing since 2010. The number of deceased donor transplants increased to 32,313 in 2019, from 29,675 in 2018; this number has been increasing since 2012. The increase may be due in part to the rising number of deaths of young people due to the ongoing opioid epidemic. The number of organs transplanted included 17,425 kidneys, 1,018 pancreata, 8,275 livers, 81 intestines, 3,604 hearts, and 2,607 lungs. In 2019, 4,324 kidneys, 346 pancreata, 867 livers, 5 intestines, 31 hearts, and 148 lungs were discarded. These numbers suggest an opportunity to increase numbers of transplants by reducing discards.

SRTR uses data collected by OPTN to calculate metrics such as donation rate, organ yield, and rate of organs recovered for transplant but not transplanted. In 2018, there were 10,721 deceased donors, and this number has been increasing since 2010. The number of deceased donor transplants increased to 29,676 in 2018 from 28,582 in 2017, and this number has been increasing since 2012. The recent increase may be due in part to the rising number of deaths of young people due to the opioid epidemic. In 2018, 4994 organs were discarded, slightly more than 4813 in 2017. In 2018, 3755 kidneys, 278 pancreata, 707 livers, 3 intestines, 23 hearts, and 317 lungs were discarded. These numbers suggest an opportunity to increase numbers of transplants by reducing discards.

We developed a kidney offer acceptance decision tool to predict the probability of graft survival and patient survival for first-time kidney-alone candidates after an offer is accepted or declined, and we characterized the effect of restricting the donor pool with a maximum acceptable kidney donor profile index (KDPI). For accepted offers, Cox proportional hazards models estimated these probabilities using transplanted kidneys. For declined offers, these probabilities were estimated by considering the experience of similar candidates who declined offers and the probability that declining would lead to these outcomes. We randomly selected 5000 declined offers and estimated these probabilities 3 years post-offer had the offers been accepted or declined. Predicted outcomes for declined offers were well calibrated (<3% error) with good predictive accuracy (area under the curve: graft survival, 0.69; patient survival, 0.69). Had the offers been accepted, the probabilities of graft survival and patient survival were typically higher. However, these advantages attenuated or disappeared with higher KDPI, candidate priority, and local donor supply. Donor pool restrictions were associated with worse 3-year outcomes, especially for candidates with high allocation priority. The kidney offer acceptance decision tool could inform offer acceptance by characterizing the potential risk-benefit trade-off associated with accepting or declining an offer.