Ecological and laboratory studies have demonstrated that temperature modulates West Nile virus (WNV) transmission dynamics and spillover infection to humans. Here we explore whether inclusion of temperature forcing in a model depicting WNV transmission improves WNV forecast accuracy relative to a baseline model depicting WNV transmission without temperature forcing. Both models are optimized using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams: mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. Each coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of WNV for 110 outbreak years from among 12 geographically diverse United States counties. The temperature-forced model improves forecast accuracy for much of the outbreak season. From the end of July until the beginning of October, a timespan during which 70% of human cases are reported, the temperature-forced model generated forecasts of the total number of human cases over the next 3 weeks, total number of human cases over the season, the week with the highest percentage of infectious mosquitoes, and the peak percentage of infectious mosquitoes that on average increased absolute forecast accuracy 5%, 10%, 12%, and 6%, respectively, over the non-temperature forced baseline model. These results indicate that use of temperature forcing improves WNV forecast accuracy and provide further evidence that temperature influences rates of WNV transmission. The findings provide a foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal WNV outbreaks and their use as a quantitative decision support tool for public health officials and mosquito control programs.

In 2010, Arizona experienced an unusually early and severe outbreak of West Nile virus (WNV) centered in the southeast section of Maricopa County. Entomological data were collected before and during the outbreak, from May 25 through July 31, 2010, using the CO2-baited light trap monitoring system maintained by Maricopa County Vector Control. In the outbreak area, the most abundant species in the Town of Gilbert and in the area covered by the Roosevelt Water Conservation District was Culex quinquefasciatus, constituting 75.1% and 71.8% of the total number of mosquitoes collected, respectively. Vector index (VI) profiles showed that the abundance of infected Cx. quinquefasciatus peaked prior to human cases, suggesting that this species was involved in the initiation of the outbreak. In contrast, the VI profiles for Cx. tarsalis were consistently low, suggesting limited involvement in initiating and sustaining transmission. Taken together, the higher abundance and the VI profiles strongly suggest that Cx. quinquefasciatus was the primary vector for this outbreak. The VI profiles consistently showed that the abundance of infected mosquitoes peaked 1 to 2 wk before the peaks of human cases, suggesting that VI could have successfully been utilized to predict the WNV outbreak in Maricopa County, AZ, in 2010.

West Nile Virus (WNV) has been detected annually in Maricopa County, Arizona, since 2003. With this in mind, we sought to determine if contemporary strains are endemic to the county or are annually imported. As part of this effort, we developed a new protocol for tiled amplicon sequencing of WNV to efficiently attain greater than 99% coverage of 14 WNV genomes collected directly from positive mosquito pools distributed throughout Maricopa County between 2014 and 2017. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses revealed that contemporary genomes fall within two major lineages; NA/WN02 and SW/WN03. We found that all of the Arizona strains possessed an amino acid substitution known to be under positive selection, which has arisen independently at least four times in Arizona. The SW/WN03 strains exhibited transient behavior, with at least 10 separate introductions into Arizona when considering both historical and contemporary strains. However, NA/WN02 strains are geographically differentiated and appear to be endemic in Arizona, with two clades that have been circulating for four and seven years. This establishment in Maricopa County provides the first evidence of local overwintering by a WNV strain over the course of several years in Arizona. Within a national context, the placement of eleven contemporary Arizona strains in the NA/WN02 lineage indicates while WNV first entered the northeastern United States in 1999, the most ancestral extant strains of WNV are now circulating in the American southwest.

West Nile virus has caused several outbreaks among humans in the Phoenix metropolitan area (Arizona, southwest USA) within the last decade. Recent ecologic studies have implicated Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex tarsalis as the mosquito vectors and identified three abundant passerine birds—great-tailed grackle (Quiscalus mexicanus), house sparrow (Passer domesticus), and house finch (Haemorhous mexicanus)—as key amplifiers among vertebrates. Nocturnal congregations of certain species have been suggested as critical for late summer West Nile virus amplification. We evaluated the hypothesis that house sparrow (P. domesticus) and/or great-tailed grackle (Q. mexicanus) communal roost sites (n = 22 and n = 5, respectively) in a primarily suburban environment were spatially associated with West Nile virus transmission indices during the 2010 outbreak of human neurological disease in metropolitan Phoenix. Spatial associations between human case residences and communal roosts were non-significant for house sparrows, and were negative for great-tailed grackle. Several theories that explain these observations are discussed, including the possibility that grackle communal roosts are protective.