IntroductionAs atrial fibrillation (AF) is often asymptomatic, it may remain undiagnosed until or even after development of complications, such as stroke. Consequently the observed prevalence of AF may underestimate total disease burden.MethodsTo estimate the prevalence of undiagnosed AF in the United States, we performed a retrospective cohort modeling study in working age (18–64) and elderly (≥65) people using commercial and Medicare administrative claims databases. We identified patients in years 2004–2010 with incident AF following an ischemic stroke. Using a back-calculation methodology, we estimated the prevalence of undiagnosed AF as the ratio of the number of post-stroke AF patients and the CHADS2-specific stroke probability for each patient, adjusting for age and gender composition based on United States census data.ResultsThe estimated prevalence of AF (diagnosed and undiagnosed) was 3,873,900 (95%CI: 3,675,200–4,702,600) elderly and 1,457,100 (95%CI: 1,218,500–1,695,800) working age adults, representing 10.0% and 0.92% of the respective populations. Of these, 698,900 were undiagnosed: 535,400 (95%CI: 331,900–804,400) elderly and 163,500 (95%CI: 17,700–400,000) working age adults, representing 1.3% and 0.09% of the respective populations. Among all undiagnosed cases, 77% had a CHADS2 score ≥1, and 56% had CHADS2 score ≥2.ConclusionsUsing a back-calculation approach, we estimate that the total AF prevalence in 2009 was 5.3 million of which 0.7 million (13.1% of AF cases) were undiagnosed. Over half of the modeled population with undiagnosed AF was at moderate to high risk of stroke.

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Usage of the NOACs, dabigatran, rivaroxaban, and apixaban may be associated with lower medical (excluding drug costs) costs relative to warfarin, with apixaban having the most substantial medical cost reduction.

Warfarin's time-in-therapeutic range (TTR) is highly variable among patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of variations in wafarin's TTR on rates of stroke/systemic embolism (SSE) and major bleedings among NVAF patients in the ARISTOTLE, ROCKET-AF, and RE-LY trials. Additionally, differences in medical costs for clinical endpoints when novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) were used instead of warfarin at different TTR values were estimated. Quartile ranges of TTR values and corresponding event rates (%/patient - year = %/py) of SSE and major bleedings among NVAF patients treated with warfarin were estimated from published literature and FDA documents. The associations of SSE and major bleeding rates with TTR values were evaluated by regression analysis and then the calculated regression coefficients were used in analysis of medical cost differences associated with use of each NOAC versus warfarin (2010 costs; US payer perspective) at different TTRs. Each 10 % increase in warfarin's TTR correlated with a -0.32%/py decrease in SSE rate (R(2) = 0.61; p < 0.001). Although, the rate of major bleedings decreased as TTR increased, it was not significant (-0.035%/py, p = 0.63). As warfarin's TTR increased from 30 to 90% the estimated medical cost decreased from -$902 to -$83 for apixaban, from -$506 to +$314 for rivaroxaban, and from -$596 to +$223 for dabigatran. Among NVAF patients there is a significant negative correlation between warfarin's TTR and SSE rate, but not major bleedings. The variations in warfarin's TTR impacted the economic comparison of use of individual NOACs versus warfarin.

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