We present the results of the Air Pollution and Health: A European Approach 2 (APHEA2) project on short-term effects of ambient particles on mortality with emphasis on effect modification. We used daily measurements for particulate matter less than 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and/or black smoke from 29 European cities. We considered confounding from other pollutants as well as meteorologic and chronologic variables. We investigated several variables describing the cities' pollution, climate, population, and geography as potential effect modifiers. For the individual city analysis, generalized additive models extending Poisson regression, using a smoother to control for seasonal patterns, were applied. To provide quantitative summaries of the results and explain remaining heterogeneity, we applied second-stage regression models. The estimated increase in the daily number of deaths for all ages for a 10 microg/m3 increase in daily PM10 or black smoke concentrations was 0.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.4-0.8%], whereas for the elderly it was slightly higher. We found important effect modification for several of the variables studied. Thus, in a city with low average NO2, the estimated increase in daily mortality for an increase of 10 microg/m3 in PM10 was 0.19 (95% CI = 0.00-0.41), whereas in a city with high average NO2 it was 0.80% (95% CI = 0.67-0.93%); in a relatively cold climate the corresponding effect was 0.29% (95% CI = 0.16-0.42), whereas in a warm climate it was 0.82% (95% CI = 0.69-0.96); in a city with low standardized mortality rate it was 0.80% (95% CI = 0.65-0.95%), and in one with a high rate it was 0.43% (95% CI = 0.24-0.62). Our results confirm those previously reported on the effects of ambient particles on mortality. Furthermore, they show that the heterogeneity found in the effect parameters among cities reflects real effect modification, which is explained by specific city characteristics.

The APHEA project is supported by the European Union Environment 1991-94 Programme. The project must be placed in the context of recent studies investigating the short term adverse health effects of moderate and relatively low air pollution levels which have consistently indicated the existence of effects at levels below the current national and international air quality guidelines. 1-7 The background and rationale of the study as well as the study areas and air pollution levels have been described in detail elsewhere.8The APHEA project is a multicentre temporal study that uses aggregated data.9 Eleven European groups participate, analysing data from 15 European cities, with a total population over 25 000 000. The objectives of the programme are: * To provide quantitative estimates ofthe short term health effects (using the total and cause specific daily number of deaths and emergency hospital admissions) of air pollution, taking into consideration interactions between different pollutants and between pollutants and other environmental factors. * To further develop and standardise the methodology for the detection of short term health effects in the analysis of epidemiological time series data. * To select and develop a meta-analytic approach for epidemiological time series studies. * To assess the feasibility of creating a European data base of air pollution measurements and of health indicators recorded on a daily basis. This will allow continuous surveillance of short term effects of air pollution in the future.The cities involved in the project are (in alphabetical order): Amsterdam, Athens, Barcelona,

We investigated the short-term effects of air pollution on hospital admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in Europe.As part of a European project (Air Pollution and Health, a European Approach (APHEA)), we analysed data from the cities of Amsterdam, Barcelona, London, Milan, Paris and Rotterdam, using a standardized approach to data eligibility and statistical analysis. Relative risks for daily COPD admissions were obtained using Poisson regression, controlling for: seasonal and other cycles; influenza epidemics; day of the week; temperature; humidity and autocorrelation. Summary effects for each pollutant were estimated as the mean of each city's regression coefficients weighted by the inverse of the variance, allowing for additional between-cities variance, as necessary.For all ages, the relative risks (95% confidence limits (95% CL)) for a 50 µg·m -3 increase in daily mean level of pollutant (lagged 1-3 days) were (95% CL): sulphur dioxide 1.02 (0.98, 1.06); black smoke 1.04 (1.01, 1.06); total suspended particulates 1.02 (1.00, 1.05), nitrogen dioxide 1.02 (1.00, 1.05) and ozone (8 h) 1.04 (1.02, 1.07).The results confirm that air pollution is associated with daily admissions for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in European cities with widely varying climates. The results for particles and ozone are broadly consistent with those from North America, though the coefficients for particles are substantially smaller. Overall, the evidence points to a causal relationship but the mechanisms of action, exposure response relationships and pollutant interactions remain unclear.

Several studies have reported significant health effects of air pollution even at low levels of air pollutants, but in most of theses studies linear nonthreshold relations were assumed. We investigated the exposure–response association between ambient particles and mortality in the 22 European cities participating in the APHEA (Air Pollution and Health—A European Approach) project, which is the largest available European database. We estimated the exposure–response curves using regression spline models with two knots and then combined the individual city estimates of the spline to get an overall exposure–response relationship. To further explore the heterogeneity in the observed city-specific exposure–response associations, we investigated several city descriptive variables as potential effect modifiers that could alter the shape of the curve. We conclude that the association between ambient particles and mortality in the cities included in the present analysis, and in the range of the pollutant common in all analyzed cities, could be adequately estimated using the linear model. Our results confirm those previously reported in Europe and the United States. The heterogeneity found in the different city-specific relations reflects real effect modification, which can be explained partly by factors characterizing the air pollution mix, climate, and the health of the population.

These effect estimates are appropriate for health impact assessment and standard-setting procedures.