Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.

Traumatic axonal injury (TAI), thought to be caused by rotational acceleration of the head, is a prevalent neuropathology in traumatic brain injury (TBI). TAI in the optic nerve is a common finding in multiple blunt-force TBI models and hence a great model to study mechanisms and treatments for TAI, especially in view of the compartmentalized anatomy of the visual system. We have previously shown that the somata and the proximal, but not distal, axons of retinal ganglion cells (RGC) respond to DLK/LZK blockade after impact acceleration of the head (IA-TBI). Here, we explored the role of the sterile alpha and TIR-motif containing 1 (SARM1), the key driver of Wallerian degeneration (WD), in the progressive breakdown of distal and proximal segments of the optic nerve following IA-TBI with high-resolution morphological and classical neuropathological approaches. Wild type and Sarm1 knockout (KO) mice received IA-TBI or sham injury and were allowed to survive for 3, 7, 14, and 21 days. Ultrastructural and microscopic analyses revealed that TAI in the optic nerve is characterized by variable involvement of individual axons, ranging from apparent early disconnection of a subpopulation of axons to a range of ongoing axonal and myelin perturbations. Traumatic axonal injury resulted in the degeneration of a population of axons distal and proximal to the injury, along with retrograde death of a subpopulation of RGCs. Quantitative analyses on proximal and distal axons and RGC somata revealed that different neuronal domains exhibit differential vulnerability, with distal axon segments showing more severe degeneration compared with proximal segments and RGC somata. Importantly, we found that Sarm1 KO had a profound effect in the distal optic nerve by suppressing axonal degeneration by up to 50% in the first 2 weeks after IA-TBI, with a continued but lower effect at 3 weeks, while also suppressing microglial activation. Sarm1 KO had no evident effect on the initial traumatic disconnection and did not ameliorate the proximal optic axonopathy or the subsequent attrition of RGCs, indicating that the fate of different axonal segments in the course of TAI may depend on distinct molecular programs within axons.

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

Background There is mounting anecdotal and empirical evidence that gardening and art-making afford therapeutic benefits. Objectives This randomly controlled pilot study tested the hypothesis that participation in group-based indoor gardening or art-making activities for one hour twice a week for four weeks would provide quantifiably different therapeutic benefits to a population of healthy women ages 26–49. Methods A population of 42 volunteers was randomly assigned to parallel gardening or art-making treatment groups. A total of 36 participants initiated the treatment protocol and 32 (Gardening n = 15 and Art n = 17) received the interventions and completed all assessments. Treatments included eight one-hour group-based gardening or art intervention sessions. Self-report psychometric assessments were conducted for anxiety, depression symptomatology, mood disturbance, stress, satisfaction with discretionary social activities, and quality of life measures. Cardiac physiological data were also collected. Outcomes were measured at baseline, during, and post-intervention. Results Engaging in both gardening and art-making activities resulted in apparent therapeutic improvements for self-reported total mood disturbance, depression symptomatology, and perceived stress with different effect sizes following eight one-hour treatment sessions. Gardening also resulted in improvements for indications of trait anxiety. Based on time-course evidence, dosage responses were observed for total mood disturbance, perceived stress, and depression symptomatology for both gardening and art-making. However, gardening or art-making did not have an apparent influence on heart rate or blood pressure or result in marked improvement for satisfaction with discretionary leisure activities. Conclusion The data did not support the hypothesis of differential therapeutic benefits of gardening and art-making for healthy women. When taken together, group-based gardening or art-making can provide quantitatively measurable improvements in healthy women’s psychosocial health status that imply potentially important public health benefits. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03266120.