Precise estimations of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks are of decided importance for the detection of C sequestration or emission potential induced by land use changes. For Germany, a comprehensive, land use–specific SOC data set has not yet been compiled. We evaluated a unique data set of 1460 soil profiles in southeast Germany in order to calculate representative SOC stocks to a depth of 1 m for the main land use types. The results showed that grassland soils stored the highest amount of SOC, with a median value of 11.8 kg m−2, whereas considerably lower stocks of 9.8 and 9.0 kg m−2 were found for forest and cropland soils, respectively. However, the differences between extensively used land (grassland, forest) and cropland were much lower compared with results from other studies in central European countries. The depth distribution of SOC showed that despite low SOC concentrations in A horizons of cropland soils, their stocks were not considerably lower compared with other land uses. This was due to a deepening of the topsoil compared with grassland soils. Higher grassland SOC stocks were caused by an accumulation of SOC in the B horizon which was attributable to a high proportion of C‐rich Gleysols within grassland soils. This demonstrates the relevance of pedogenetic SOC inventories instead of solely land use–based approaches. Our study indicated that cultivation‐induced SOC depletion was probably often overestimated since most studies use fixed depth increments. Moreover, the application of modelled parameters in SOC inventories is questioned because a calculation of SOC stocks using different pedotransfer functions revealed considerably biased results. We recommend SOC stocks be determined by horizon for the entire soil profile in order to estimate the impact of land use changes precisely and to evaluate C sequestration potentials more accurately.

Sequestration of atmospheric carbon (C) in soils through improved management of forest and agricultural land is considered to have high potential for global CO2 mitigation. However, the potential of soils to sequester soil organic carbon (SOC) in a stable form, which is limited by the stabilization of SOC against microbial mineralization, is largely unknown. In this study, we estimated the C sequestration potential of soils in southeast Germany by calculating the potential SOC saturation of silt and clay particles according to Hassink [Plant and Soil 191 (1997) 77] on the basis of 516 soil profiles. The determination of the current SOC content of silt and clay fractions for major soil units and land uses allowed an estimation of the C saturation deficit corresponding to the long-term C sequestration potential. The results showed that cropland soils have a low level of C saturation of around 50% and could store considerable amounts of additional SOC. A relatively high C sequestration potential was also determined for grassland soils. In contrast, forest soils had a low C sequestration potential as they were almost C saturated. A high proportion of sites with a high degree of apparent oversaturation revealed that in acidic, coarse-textured soils the relation to silt and clay is not suitable to estimate the stable C saturation. A strong correlation of the C saturation deficit with temperature and precipitation allowed a spatial estimation of the C sequestration potential for Bavaria. In total, about 395 Mt CO2 -equivalents could theoretically be stored in A horizons of cultivated soils - four times the annual emission of greenhouse gases in Bavaria. Although achieving the entire estimated C storage capacity is unrealistic, improved management of cultivated land could contribute significantly to CO2 mitigation. Moreover, increasing SOC stocks have additional benefits with respect to enhanced soil fertility and agricultural productivity.

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Climate change and stagnating crop yields may cause a decline of SOC stocks in agricultural soils leading to considerable CO2 emissions and reduced agricultural productivity. Regional model-based SOC projections are needed to evaluate these potential risks. In this study, we simulated the future SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria in the 21st century. Soils from 51 study sites representing the most important soil classes of Central Europe were fractionated and derived SOC pools were used to initialize the RothC soil carbon model. For each site, long-term C inputs were determined using the C allocation method. Model runs were performed for three different C input scenarios as a realistic range of projected yield development. Our modelling approach revealed substantial SOC decreases of 11–16% under an expected mean temperature increase of 3.3 °C assuming unchanged C inputs. For the scenario of 20% reduced C inputs, agricultural SOC stocks are projected to decline by 19–24%. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario of 20% increased C inputs led to SOC decreases of 3–8%. Projected SOC changes largely differed among investigated soil classes. Our results indicated that C inputs have to increase by 29% to maintain present SOC stocks in agricultural soils.