Aneuploidy, chromosomal instability, somatic copy-number alterations, and whole-genome doubling (WGD) play key roles in cancer evolution and provide information for the complex task of phylogenetic inference. We present MEDICC2, a method for inferring evolutionary trees and WGD using haplotype-specific somatic copy-number alterations from single-cell or bulk data. MEDICC2 eschews simplifications such as the infinite sites assumption, allowing multiple mutations and parallel evolution, and does not treat adjacent loci as independent, allowing overlapping copy-number events. Using simulations and multiple data types from 2780 tumors, we use MEDICC2 to demonstrate accurate inference of phylogenies, clonal and subclonal WGD, and ancestral copy-number states.

B cells are frequently found in the margins of solid tumours as organized follicles in ectopic lymphoid organs called tertiary lymphoid structures (TLS)1,2. Although TLS have been found to correlate with improved patient survival and response to immune checkpoint blockade (ICB), the underlying mechanisms of this association remain elusive1,2. Here we investigate lung-resident B cell responses in patients from the TRACERx 421 (Tracking Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Evolution Through Therapy) and other lung cancer cohorts, and in a recently established immunogenic mouse model for lung adenocarcinoma3. We find that both human and mouse lung adenocarcinomas elicit local germinal centre responses and tumour-binding antibodies, and further identify endogenous retrovirus (ERV) envelope glycoproteins as a dominant anti-tumour antibody target. ERV-targeting B cell responses are amplified by ICB in both humans and mice, and by targeted inhibition of KRAS(G12C) in the mouse model. ERV-reactive antibodies exert anti-tumour activity that extends survival in the mouse model, and ERV expression predicts the outcome of ICB in human lung adenocarcinoma. Finally, we find that effective immunotherapy in the mouse model requires CXCL13-dependent TLS formation. Conversely, therapeutic CXCL13 treatment potentiates anti-tumour immunity and synergizes with ICB. Our findings provide a possible mechanistic basis for the association of TLS with immunotherapy response.

Environmental carcinogenic exposures are major contributors to global disease burden yet how they promote cancer is unclear. Over 70 years ago, the concept of tumour promoting agents driving latent clones to expand was rst proposed. In support of this model, recent evidence suggests that human tissue contains a patchwork of mutant clones, some of which harbour oncogenic mutations, and many environmental carcinogens lack a clear mutational signature. We hypothesised that the environmental carcinogen, <2.5μm particulate matter (PM2.5), might promote lung cancer promotion through nonmutagenic mechanisms by acting on pre-existing mutant clones within normal tissues in patients with lung cancer who have never smoked, a disease with a high frequency of EGFR activating mutations. We analysed PM2.5 levels and cancer incidence reported by UK Biobank, Public Health England, Taiwan Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH) and Korean Samsung Medical Centre (SMC) from a total of 463,679 individuals between 2006-2018. We report associations between PM2.5 levels and the incidence of several cancers, including EGFR mutant lung cancer. We nd that pollution on a background of EGFR mutant lung epithelium promotes a progenitor-like cell state and demonstrate that PM accelerates lung cancer progression in EGFR and Kras mutant mouse lung cancer models. Through parallel exposure studies in mouse and human participants, we nd evidence that in ammatory mediators, such as interleukin-1 , may act upon EGFR mutant clones to drive expansion of progenitor cells. Ultradeep mutational pro ling of histologically normal lung tissue from 247 individuals across 3 clinical cohorts revealed oncogenic EGFR and KRAS driver mutations in 18% and 33% of normal tissue samples, respectively. These results support a tumour-promoting role for PM acting on latent mutant clones in normal lung tissue and add to evidence providing an urgent mandate to address air pollution in urban areas.

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-associated mortality worldwide1. Here we analysed 1,644 tumour regions sampled at surgery or during follow-up from the first 421 patients with non-small cell lung cancer prospectively enrolled into the TRACERx study. This project aims to decipher lung cancer evolution and address the primary study endpoint: determining the relationship between intratumour heterogeneity and clinical outcome. In lung adenocarcinoma, mutations in 22 out of 40 common cancer genes were under significant subclonal selection, including classical tumour initiators such as TP53 and KRAS. We defined evolutionary dependencies between drivers, mutational processes and whole genome doubling (WGD) events. Despite patients having a history of smoking, 8% of lung adenocarcinomas lacked evidence of tobacco-induced mutagenesis. These tumours also had similar detection rates for EGFR mutations and for RET, ROS1, ALK and MET oncogenic isoforms compared with tumours in never-smokers, which suggests that they have a similar aetiology and pathogenesis. Large subclonal expansions were associated with positive subclonal selection. Patients with tumours harbouring recent subclonal expansions, on the terminus of a phylogenetic branch, had significantly shorter disease-free survival. Subclonal WGD was detected in 19% of tumours, and 10% of tumours harboured multiple subclonal WGDs in parallel. Subclonal, but not truncal, WGD was associated with shorter disease-free survival. Copy number heterogeneity was associated with extrathoracic relapse within 1 year after surgery. These data demonstrate the importance of clonal expansion, WGD and copy number instability in determining the timing and patterns of relapse in non-small cell lung cancer and provide a comprehensive clinical cancer evolutionary data resource.

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