BackgroundLeptospirosis is a disease which occurs worldwide but particularly affects tropical areas. Transmission of the disease is dependent on its excretion by reservoir animals and the presence of moist environment which allows the survival of the bacteria.Methods and FindingsA retrospective study was undertaken to describe seasonal patterns of human leptospirosis cases reported by the Centre National de Références des Leptospiroses (CNRL, Pasteur Institute, Paris) between 1998 and 2008, to determine if there was an association between the occurrence of diagnosed cases and rainfall, temperature and global solar radiation (GSR). Meteorological data were recorded in the town of Saint-Benoît (Météo France “Beaufonds-Miria” station), located on the windward (East) coast. Time-series analysis was used to identify the variables that best described and predicted the occurrence of cases of leptospirosis on the island. Six hundred and thirteen cases were reported during the 11-year study period, and 359 cases (58.56%) were diagnosed between February and May. A significant correlation was identified between the number of cases in a given month and the associated cumulated rainfall as well as the mean monthly temperature recorded 2 months prior to diagnosis (r = 0.28 and r = 0.23 respectively). The predictive model includes the number of cases of leptospirosis recorded 1 month prior to diagnosis (b = 0.193), the cumulated monthly rainfall recorded 2 months prior to diagnosis (b = 0.145), the average monthly temperature recorded 0 month prior to diagnosis (b = 3.836), and the average monthly GSR recorded 0 month prior to diagnosis (b = −1.293).ConclusionsLeptospirosis has a seasonal distribution in Reunion Island. Meteorological data can be used to predict the occurrence of the disease and our statistical model can help to implement seasonal prevention measures.

Leptospirosis is the major infectious disease on Reunion Island but little is known about the animal reservoir. We conducted a wide-ranging survey that included samples from 574 animals belonging to 12 species. The seroprevalence and prevalence of renal carriage varied greatly depending on the species, with the highest seroprevalence (79·5%) found in Norway rats, and the lowest (13·2%) in tenrecs. The renal carriage rate ranged from 84·6% in mice to 0% in tenrecs. Our results suggest that rodents are the most important reservoirs of leptospirosis on Reunion Island. The epidemiological role that animals play in human infection is discussed. For the first time, we quantified the renal concentration of leptospires in ten naturally infected mammals. The history of Reunion Island colonization probably explains why the circulating Leptospira serogroups were similar to those found in Europe. Our study provides evidence that will help implement preventive measures against this zoonosis.

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a major zoonotic and arboviral hemorrhagic fever. The conditions leading to RVF epidemics are still unclear, and the relative role of climatic and anthropogenic factors may vary between ecosystems. Here, we estimate the most likely scenario that led to RVF emergence on the island of Mayotte, following the 2006–2007 African epidemic. We developed the first mathematical model for RVF that accounts for climate, animal imports and livestock susceptibility, which is fitted to a 12-years dataset. RVF emergence was found to be triggered by the import of infectious animals, whilst transmissibility was approximated as a linear or exponential function of vegetation density. Model forecasts indicated a very low probability of virus endemicity in 2017, and therefore of re-emergence in a closed system (i.e. without import of infected animals). However, the very high proportion of naive animals reached in 2016 implies that the island remains vulnerable to the import of infectious animals. We recommend reinforcing surveillance in livestock, should RVF be reported is neighbouring territories. Our model should be tested elsewhere, with ecosystem-specific data.