SummaryA country-specific FRAX model has been developed for the Ukraine to replace the Austrian model hitherto used. Comparison of the Austrian and Ukrainian models indicated that the former markedly overestimated fracture probability whilst correctly stratifying risk.IntroductionFRAX has been used to estimate osteoporotic fracture risk since 2009. Rather than using a surrogate model, the Austrian version of FRAX was adopted for clinical practice. Since then, data have become available on hip fracture incidence in the Ukraine.MethodsThe incidence of hip fracture was computed from three regional estimates and used to construct a country-specific FRAX model for the Ukraine. The model characteristics were compared with those of the Austrian FRAX model, previously used in Ukraine by using all combinations of six risk factors and eight values of BMD (total number of combinations =512).ResultsThe relationship between the probabilities of a major fracture derived from the two versions of FRAX indicated a close correlation between the two estimates (r > 0.95). The Ukrainian version, however, gave markedly lower probabilities than the Austrian model at all ages. For a major osteoporotic fracture, the median probability was lower by 25% at age 50 years and the difference increased with age. At the age of 60, 70 and 80 years, the median value was lower by 30, 53 and 65%, respectively. Similar findings were observed for men and for hip fracture.ConclusionThe Ukrainian FRAX model should enhance accuracy of determining fracture probability among the Ukrainian population and help to guide decisions about treatment. The study also indicates that the use of surrogate FRAX models or models from other countries, whilst correctly stratifying risk, may markedly over or underestimate the absolute fracture probability.

Worldwide, the number of hip fractures, the most important osteoporotic complication in the elderly, continues to increase in line with the ageing of the population. In some countries, however, including the Ukraine, data on the incidence of hip fracture are limited. This article describes the first analysis to characterize the incidence of hip fracture in the Ukrainian population from the age of 40 years. It is based on data from two regional studies, namely, the Vinnitsa city study and the STOP study, which were performed during 1997–2002 and 2011-2012 years, respectively. Hip fracture incidence rates were demonstrated to increase with increasing age. The rates were higher among younger men than women, however, with a female preponderance from the age of 65 years upwards. The incidence of hip fractures in Ukraine is 255.5 per 100,000 for women aged 50 years and older and 197.8 per 100,000 for men of the corresponding age. Overall, the incidence of hip fracture was comparable with data from neighboring countries, such as Poland and Romania. Hip fractures constitute a serious healthcare problem in Ukraine, and changes in healthcare are required to improve the management and long-term care of osteoporosis and its complications.

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