Apolipoprotein E (APOE) dependent lifetime risks (LTRs) for Alzheimer Disease (AD) are currently not accurately known and odds ratios (ORs) alone are insufficient to assess these risks. We calculated AD lifetime risk in 7,351 cases and 10,132 controls from Caucasian ancestry using Rochester (USA) incidence data. At the age of 85 the LTR of AD without reference to APOE genotype was 11% in males and 14% in females. At the same age, this risk ranged from 51% for APOE44 male carriers to 60% for APOE44 female carriers, and from 23% for APOE34 male carriers to 30% for APOE34 female carriers, consistent with semi-dominant inheritance of a moderately penetrant gene. Using PAQUID (France) incidence data, estimates were globally similar except that at age 85 the LTRs reached 68% and 35 % for APOE 44 and APOE 34 female carriers, respectively. These risks are more similar to those of major genes in Mendelian diseases, such as BRCA1 in breast cancer, than those of low-risk common alleles identified by recent GWAS in complex diseases. In addition, stratification of our data by age- groups clearly demonstrates that APOE4 is a risk factor not only for late- onset but for early- onset AD as well. Together, these results urge a reappraisal of the impact of APOE in Alzheimer disease.

The epsilon4 allele of the apolipoprotein E gene (APOE) has been associated with an increased risk of developing Alzheimer's disease (AD; refs 1,2). However, it is apparent that the APOEepsilon4 allele alone is neither necessary nor sufficient to cause the disease. We have recently found three new polymorphisms within the APOE transcriptional regulatory region (M.J.A. et al., manuscript submitted) and now establish an association between one of these polymorphisms (-491A/T) and dementia as observed in Alzheimer's disease, in two independent clinical populations. The results suggest that homozygosity of a common variant (-491A) is associated with increased risk for AD, and that this association is independent of APOEepsilon4 status. In vitro studies suggest that the -491A/T polymorphism may increase risk for AD by altering the level of ApoE protein expression.