Background Liraglutide 3·0 mg was shown to reduce bodyweight and improve glucose metabolism after the 56-week period of this trial, one of four trials in the SCALE programme. In the 3-year assessment of the SCALE Obesity and Prediabetes trial we aimed to evaluate the proportion of individuals with prediabetes who were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Methods In this randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, adults with prediabetes and a body-mass index of at least 30 kg/m2, or at least 27 kg/m2 with comorbidities, were randomised 2:1, using a telephone or web-based system, to once-daily subcutaneous liraglutide 3·0 mg or matched placebo, as an adjunct to a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. Time to diabetes onset by 160 weeks was the primary outcome, evaluated in all randomised treated individuals with at least one post-baseline assessment. The trial was conducted at 191 clinical research sites in 27 countries and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01272219. Findings The study ran between June 1, 2011, and March 2, 2015. We randomly assigned 2254 patients to receive liraglutide (n=1505) or placebo (n=749). 1128 (50%) participants completed the study up to week 160, after withdrawal of 714 (47%) participants in the liraglutide group and 412 (55%) participants in the placebo group. By week 160, 26 (2%) of 1472 individuals in the liraglutide group versus 46 (6%) of 738 in the placebo group were diagnosed with diabetes while on treatment. The mean time from randomisation to diagnosis was 99 (SD 47) weeks for the 26 individuals in the liraglutide group versus 87 (47) weeks for the 46 individuals in the placebo group. Taking the different diagnosis frequencies between the treatment groups into account, the time to onset of diabetes over 160 weeks among all randomised individuals was 2·7 times longer with liraglutide than with placebo (95% CI 1·9 to 3·9, p<0·0001), corresponding with a hazard ratio of 0·21 (95% CI 0·13–0·34). Liraglutide induced greater weight loss than placebo at week 160 (–6·1 [SD 7·3] vs −1·9% [6·3]; estimated treatment difference −4·3%, 95% CI −4·9 to −3·7, p<0·0001). Serious adverse events were reported by 227 (15%) of 1501 randomised treated individuals in the liraglutide group versus 96 (13%) of 747 individuals in the placebo group. Interpretation In this trial, we provide results for 3 years of treatment, with the limitation that withdrawn individuals were not followed up after discontinuation. Liraglutide 3·0 mg might provide health benefits in terms of reduced risk of diabetes in individuals with obesity and prediabetes. Funding Novo Nordisk, Denmark

OBJECTIVE -Type 2 diabetes is the leading cause of end-stage renal disease worldwide. Aside from hyperglycemia and hypertension, other metabolic factors may determine renal outcome. We examined risk associations of metabolic syndrome with new onset of chronic kidney disease (CKD) in 5,829 Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes enrolled between 1995 and 2005.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS -Metabolic syndrome was defined by National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria with the Asian definition of obesity. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the abbreviated Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula modified for the Chinese population. New onset of CKD was defined as eGFR Ͻ60 ml/min per 1.73 m 2 at the time of censor. Subjects with CKD at baseline were excluded from the analysis. RESULTS-After a median follow-up duration of 4.6 years (interquartile range: 1.9 -7.3 years), 741 patients developed CKD. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of CKD was 1.31 (95% CI 1.12-1.54, P ϭ 0.001) for subjects with metabolic syndrome compared with those without metabolic syndrome. Relative to subjects with no other components of metabolic syndrome except for diabetes, those with two, three, four, and five metabolic syndrome components had HRs of an increased risk of CKD of 1.15 (0.83-1.60, P ϭ 0.407) 1.32 (0.94 -1.86, P ϭ 0.112), 1.64 (1.17-2.32, P ϭ 0.004), and 2.34 (1.54 -3.54, P Ͻ 0.001), respectively. The metabolic syndrome traits of central obesity, hypertriglyceridemia, hypertension, and low BMI were independent predictors for CKD.CONCLUSIONS -The presence of metabolic syndrome independently predicts the development of CKD in subjects with type 2 diabetes.

OBJECTIVEWe examined metabolic profiles and cardiovascular-renal outcomes in a prospective cohort of Chinese patients with young-onset diabetes defined by diagnosis age ,40 years. Patients with type 1 diabetes and normal-weight (BMI ,23 kg/m 2 ) and overweight (BMI ‡23 kg/m 2 ) patients with type 2 diabetes were compared. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODSBetween 1995 and 2004, 2,323 patients (type 1 diabetes, n = 209; normal-weight type 2 diabetes, n = 636; and overweight type 2 diabetes, n = 1,478) underwent detailed clinical assessment. Incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) including coronary heart disease, stroke, and peripheral vascular disease were identified using hospital discharge diagnoses. End-stage renal disease (ESRD) was defined by glomerular filtration rate ,15 mL/min/1.73 m 2 or dialysis. RESULTSOverweight patients with type 2 diabetes had the worst metabolic profile and highest prevalence of microvascular complications. Over a median follow-up of 9.3 years, incidences of CVD were 0.6, 5.1, and 9.6 per 1,000 person-years in patients with type 1 diabetes, normal-weight patients with type 2 diabetes, and overweight patients with type 2 diabetes. A slide set summarizing this article is available online.