Objective To determine the extent to which antibiotics reduce the risk of serious complications after common respiratory tract infections. Design Retrospective cohort study. Setting UK primary care practices contributing to the general practice research database. Data source 3.36 million episodes of respiratory tract infection. Main outcome measures Risk of serious complications in treated and untreated patients in the month after diagnosis: mastoiditis after otitis media, quinsy after sore throat, and pneumonia after upper respiratory tract infection and chest infection. Number of patients needed to treat to prevent one complication. Results Serious complications were rare after upper respiratory tract infections, sore throat, and otitis media, and the number needed to treat was over 4000. The risk of pneumonia after chest infection was high, particularly in elderly people, and was substantially reduced by antibiotic use, with a number needed to treat of 39 for those aged =65 and 96-119 in younger age groups. Conclusion Antibiotics are not justified to reduce the risk of serious complications for upper respiratory tract infection, sore throat, or otitis media. Antibiotics substantially reduce the risk of pneumonia after chest infection, particularly in elderly people in whom the risk is highest

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) represents a serious threat to the health of hospitalized patients. Attempts to reduce the spread of MRSA have largely depended on hospital hygiene and patient isolation. These measures have met with mixed success: although some countries have almost eliminated MRSA or remained largely free of the organism, others have seen substantial increases despite rigorous control policies. We use a mathematical model to show how these increases can be explained by considering both hospital and community reservoirs of MRSA colonization. We show how the timing of the intervention, the level of resource provision, and chance combine to determine whether control measures succeed or fail. We find that even control measures able to repeatedly prevent sustained outbreaks in the short-term can result in long-term control failure resulting from gradual increases in the community reservoir. If resources do not scale with MRSA prevalence, isolation policies can fail ''catastrophically.''