Summary Background The Millennium Declaration in 2000 brought special global attention to HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria through the formulation of Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 6. The Global Burden of Disease 2013 study provides a consistent and comprehensive approach to disease estimation for between 1990 and 2013, and an opportunity to assess whether accelerated progress has occurred since the Millennium Declaration. Methods To estimate incidence and mortality for HIV, we used the UNAIDS Spectrum model appropriately modified based on a systematic review of available studies of mortality with and without antiretroviral therapy (ART). For concentrated epidemics, we calibrated Spectrum models to fit vital registration data corrected for misclassification of HIV deaths. In generalised epidemics, we minimised a loss function to select epidemic curves most consistent with prevalence data and demographic data for all-cause mortality. We analysed counterfactual scenarios for HIV to assess years of life saved through prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) and ART. For tuberculosis, we analysed vital registration and verbal autopsy data to estimate mortality using cause of death ensemble modelling. We analysed data for corrected case-notifications, expert opinions on the case-detection rate, prevalence surveys, and estimated cause-specific mortality using Bayesian meta-regression to generate consistent trends in all parameters. We analysed malaria mortality and incidence using an updated cause of death database, a systematic analysis of verbal autopsy validation studies for malaria, and recent studies (2010–13) of incidence, drug resistance, and coverage of insecticide-treated bednets. Findings Globally in 2013, there were 1·8 million new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval 1·7 million to 2·1 million), 29·2 million prevalent HIV cases (28·1 to 31·7), and 1·3 million HIV deaths (1·3 to 1·5). At the peak of the epidemic in 2005, HIV caused 1·7 million deaths (1·6 million to 1·9 million). Concentrated epidemics in Latin America and eastern Europe are substantially smaller than previously estimated. Through interventions including PMTCT and ART, 19·1 million life-years (16·6 million to 21·5 million) have been saved, 70·3% (65·4 to 76·1) in developing countries. From 2000 to 2011, the ratio of development assistance for health for HIV to years of life saved through intervention was US$4498 in developing countries. Including in HIV-positive individuals, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·5 million (7·4 million to 7·7 million), prevalence was 11·9 million (11·6 million to 12·2 million), and number of deaths was 1·4 million (1·3 million to 1·5 million) in 2013. In the same year and in only individuals who were HIV-negative, all-form tuberculosis incidence was 7·1 million (6·9 million to 7·3 million), prevalence was 11·2 million (10·8 million to 11·6 million), and number of deaths was 1·3 million (1·2 million to 1·4 million). Annualised rates of change (ARC) for incidence, prevalence, and death beca...

Abstract-Blood pressure (BP) follows a circadian rhythm, with 10% to 15% lower values during nighttime than during daytime. The absence of a nocturnal BP decrease (dipping) is associated with target organ damage, but the determinants of dipping are poorly understood. We assessed whether the nighttime BP and the dipping are associated with the circadian pattern of sodium excretion. Ambulatory BP and daytime and nighttime urinary electrolyte excretion were measured simultaneously in 325 individuals of African descent from 73 families. When divided into sex-specific tertiles of day:night ratios of urinary sodium excretion rate, subjects in tertile 1 (with the lowest ratio) were 6.5 years older and had a 9.8-mm Hg higher nighttime systolic BP (SBP) and a 23% lower SBP dipping (expressed in percentage of day value) compared with subjects in tertile 3 (P for trend Ͻ0.01). After adjustment for age, the SBP difference across tertiles decreased to 5.4 mm Hg (Pϭ0.002), and the SBP dipping difference decreased to 17% (Pϭ0.05). A similar trend across tertiles was found with diastolic BP. In multivariate analyses, daytime urinary sodium and potassium concentrations were independently associated with nighttime SBP and SBP dipping (PϽ0.05 for each). These data, based on a large number of subjects, suggest that the capacity to excrete sodium during daytime is a significant determinant of nocturnal BP and dipping. This observation may help us to understand the pathophysiology and clinical consequences of nighttime BP and to develop therapeutic strategies to normalize the dipping profile in hypertensive patients. (Hypertension. 2008;51:891-898.)