Knowledge of carbon exchange between the atmosphere, land and the oceans is important, given that the terrestrial and marine environments are currently absorbing about half of the carbon dioxide that is emitted by fossil-fuel combustion. This carbon uptake is therefore limiting the extent of atmospheric and climatic change, but its long-term nature remains uncertain. Here we provide an overview of the current state of knowledge of global and regional patterns of carbon exchange by terrestrial ecosystems. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen data confirm that the terrestrial biosphere was largely neutral with respect to net carbon exchange during the 1980s, but became a net carbon sink in the 1990s. This recent sink can be largely attributed to northern extratropical areas, and is roughly split between North America and Eurasia. Tropical land areas, however, were approximately in balance with respect to carbon exchange, implying a carbon sink that offset emissions due to tropical deforestation. The evolution of the terrestrial carbon sink is largely the result of changes in land use over time, such as regrowth on abandoned agricultural land and fire prevention, in addition to responses to environmental changes, such as longer growing seasons, and fertilization by carbon dioxide and nitrogen. Nevertheless, there remain considerable uncertainties as to the magnitude of the sink in different regions and the contribution of different processes.
Summary
Seventeen global models of terrestrial biogeochemistry were compared with respect to annual and seasonal fluxes of net primary productivity (NPP) for the land biosphere. The comparison, sponsored by IGBP‐GAIM/DIS/GCTE, used standardized input variables wherever possible and was carried out through two international workshops and over the Internet. The models differed widely in complexity and original purpose, but could be grouped in three major categories: satellite‐based models that use data from the NOAA/AVHRR sensor as their major input stream (CASA, GLO‐PEM, SDBM, SIB2 and TURC), models that simulate carbon fluxes using a prescribed vegetation structure (BIOME‐BGC, CARAIB 2.1, CENTURY 4.0, FBM 2.2, HRBM 3.0, KGBM, PLAI 0.2, SILVAN 2.2 and TEM 4.0), and models that simulate both vegetation structure and carbon fluxes (BIOME3, DOLY and HYBRID 3.0). The simulations resulted in a range of total NPP values (44.4–66.3 Pg C year–1), after removal of two outliers (which produced extreme results as artefacts due to the comparison). The broad global pattern of NPP and the relationship of annual NPP to the major climatic variables coincided in most areas. Differences could not be attributed to the fundamental modelling strategies, with the exception that nutrient constraints generally produced lower NPP. Regional and global NPP were sensitive to the simulation method for the water balance. Seasonal variation among models was high, both globally and locally, providing several indications for specific deficiencies in some models.
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