Glaciers cover ∼10% of the Earth's land surface, but they are shrinking rapidly across most parts of the world, leading to cascading impacts on downstream systems. Glaciers impart unique footprints on river flow at times when other water sources are low. Changes in river hydrology and morphology caused by climate-induced glacier loss are projected to be the greatest of any hydrological system, with major implications for riverine and near-shore marine environments. Here, we synthesize current evidence of how glacier shrinkage will alter hydrological regimes, sediment transport, and biogeochemical and contaminant fluxes from rivers to oceans. This will profoundly influence the natural environment, including many facets of biodiversity, and the ecosystem services that glacier-fed rivers provide to humans, particularly provision of water for agriculture, hydropower, and consumption. We conclude that human society must plan adaptation and mitigation measures for the full breadth of impacts in all affected regions caused by glacier shrinkage.

Summary 1. It is becoming increasingly clear that fresh waters play a major role in the global C cycle. Stream ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary productivity (GPP) exert a significant control on organic carbon fluxes in fluvial networks. However, little is known about how climate change will influence these fluxes. 2. Here, we used a ‘natural experiment’ to demonstrate the role of temperature and nutrient cycling in whole‐system metabolism (ER, GPP and net ecosystem production – NEP), in naturally heated geothermal (5–25 °C) Icelandic streams. 3. We calculated ER and GPP with a new, more accurate method, which enabled us to take into account the additional uncertainties owing to stream spatial heterogeneity in oxygen concentrations within a reach. ER ranged 1–25 g C m−2 day−1 and GPP 1–10 g C m−2 day−1. The median uncertainties (based on 1 SD) in ER and GPP were 50% and 20%, respectively. 4. Despite extremely low water nutrient concentrations, high metabolic rates in the warm streams were supported by fast cycling rates of nutrients, as revealed from inorganic nutrient (N, P) addition experiments. 5. ER exceeded GPP in all streams (with average GPP/ER = 0.6) and was more strongly related to temperature than GPP, resulting in elevated negative NEP with warming. We show that, as a first approximation based on summer investigations, global stream carbon emission to the atmosphere would nearly double from 0.12 Pg C year−1 at 13 °C to 0.21 (0.15–0.33) Pg C year−1 with a 5 °C warming. 6. Compared to previous studies from natural systems (including terrestrial ecosystems), the temperature dependence of stream metabolism was not confounded by latitude or altitude, seasonality, light and nutrient availability, water chemistry, space availability (water transient storage), and water availability. 7. Consequently, stream nutrient processing is likely to increase with warming, protecting downstream ecosystems (rivers, estuaries, coastal marine systems) during the summer low flows from nutrient enrichment, but at the cost of increased CO2 flux back to the atmosphere.

Summary 1. We studied 10 first‐order Icelandic streams differing in geothermal influence in separate catchments. Summer temperature (August–September) ranged between 6 and 23 °C. 2. Macroinvertebrate evenness and species overlap decreased significantly with temperature whereas taxon richness showed no response. In total, 35 macroinvertebrate species were found with Chironomidae the dominant taxonomic group. Macroinvertebrate density increased significantly with temperature. Dominant species in the warm streams were Lymnaea peregra and Simulium vittatum. Algal biomass, macrophyte cover and richness were unrelated to temperature. Densities of trout (Salmo trutta), the only fish species present, reflected habitat conditions and to a lesser degree temperature. 3. Density of filter‐feeders increased significantly with temperature whereas scraper density, the other dominant functional feeding group, was unrelated to temperature. Stable isotope analysis revealed a positive relationship between δ15N and temperature across several trophic levels. No pattern was found with regard to δ13C and temperature. 4. Leaf litter decomposition in both fine and coarse mesh leaf bags were significantly correlated to temperature. In coarse mesh leaf packs breakdown rates were almost doubled compared with fine mesh, ranging between 0.5 and 1.3 g DW 28 days−1. Nutrient diffusion substrates showed that the streams were primarily nitrogen limited across the temperature gradient while a significant additional effect of phosphorous was found with increasing temperature. 5. Structural and functional attributes gave complementary information which all indicated a change with temperature similar to what is found in moderately polluted streams. Our results therefore suggest that lotic ecosystems could be degraded by global warming.

Environmental warming is predicted to rise dramatically over the next century, yet few studies have investigated its effects in natural, multi-species systems. We present data collated over an 8-year period from a catchment of geothermally heated streams in Iceland, which acts as a natural experiment on the effects of warming across different organisational levels and spatiotemporal scales. Body sizes and population biomasses of individual species responded strongly to temperature, with some providing evidence to support temperature size rules. Macroinvertebrate and meiofaunal community composition also changed dramatically across the thermal gradient. Interactions within the warm streams in particular were characterised by food chains linking algae to snails to the apex predator, brown trout These chains were missing from the colder systems, where snails were replaced by much smaller herbivores and invertebrate omnivores were the top predators. Trout were also subsidised by terrestrial invertebrate prey, which could have an effect analogous to apparent competition within the aquatic prey assemblage. Top-down effects by snails on diatoms were stronger in the warmer streams, which could account for a shallowing of mass-abundance slopes across the community. This may indicate reduced energy transfer efficiency from resources to consumers in the warmer systems and/or a change in predator-prey mass ratios. All the ecosystem process rates investigated increased with temperature, but with differing thermal sensitivities, with important implications for overall ecosystem functioning (e.g. creating potential imbalances in elemental fluxes). Ecosystem respiration rose rapidly with temperature, leading to increased heterotrophy. There were also indications that food web stability may be lower in the warmer streams.

The Earth is experiencing historically unprecedented rates of warming, with surface temperatures projected to increase by 3-5 1C globally, and up to 7.5 1C in high latitudes, within the next century. Knowledge of how this will affect biological systems is still largely restricted to the lower levels of organization (e.g. species range shifts), rather than at the community, food web or ecosystem level, where responses cannot be predicted from studying single species in isolation. Further, many correlational studies are confounded with time and/or space, whereas experiments have been mostly confined to laboratory microcosms that cannot capture the true complexity of natural ecosystems. We used a 'natural experiment' in an attempt to circumvent these shortcomings, by characterizing community structure and trophic interactions in 15 geothermal Icelandic streams ranging in temperature from 5 1C to 45 1C. Even modest temperature increases had dramatic effects across multiple levels of organization, from changes in the mean body size of the top predators, to unimodal responses of species populations, turnover in community composition, and lengthening of food chains. Our results reveal that the rates of warming predicted for the next century have serious implications for the structure and functioning of these fragile 'sentinel' ecosystems across multiple levels of organization.