Numerous scientific upgrades to the representation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) are incorporated into the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system. Additions include several recently identified SOA precursors: benzene, isoprene, and sesquiterpenes; and pathways: in-cloud oxidation of glyoxal and methylglyoxal, particle-phase oligomerization, and acid enhancement of isoprene SOA. NO(x)-dependent aromatic SOA yields are also added along with new empirical measurements of the enthalpies of vaporization and organic mass-to-carbon ratios. For the first time, these SOA precursors, pathways and empirical parameters are included simultaneously in an air quality model for an annual simulation spanning the continental U.S. Comparisons of CMAQ-modeled secondary organic carbon (OC(sec)) with semiempirical estimates screened from 165 routine monitoring sites across the U.S. indicate the new SOA module substantially improves model performance. The most notable improvement occurs in the central and southeastern U.S. where the regionally averaged temporal correlations (r) between modeled and semiempirical OC(sec) increase from 0.5 to 0.8 and 0.3 to 0.8, respectively, when the new SOA module is employed. Wintertime OC(sec) results improve in all regions of the continental U.S. and the seasonal and regional patterns of biogenic SOA are better represented.

Summary Background Millions of people worldwide are chronically exposed to arsenic through drinking water, including 35–77 million people in Bangladesh. The association between arsenic exposure and mortality rate has not been prospectively investigated by use of individual-level data. We therefore prospectively assessed whether chronic and recent changes in arsenic exposure are associated with all-cause and chronic-disease mortalities in a Bangladeshi population. Methods In the prospective cohort Health Effects of Arsenic Longitudinal Study (HEALS), trained physicians unaware of arsenic exposure interviewed in person and clinically assessed 11 746 population-based participants (aged 18–75 years) from Araihazar, Bangladesh. Participants were recruited from October, 2000, to May, 2002, and followed-up biennially. Data for mortality rates were available throughout February, 2009. We used Cox proportional hazards model to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of mortality, with adjustment for potential confounders, at different doses of arsenic exposure. Findings 407 deaths were ascertained between October, 2000, and February, 2009. Multivariate adjusted HRs for all-cause mortality in a comparison of arsenic at concentrations of 10·1–50·0 μg/L, 50·1–150·0 μg/L, and 150·1–864·0 μg/L with at least 10·0 μg/L in well water were 1·34 (95% CI 0·99–1·82), 1·09 (0·81–1·47), and 1·68 (1·26–2·23), respectively. Results were similar with daily arsenic dose and total arsenic concentration in urine. Recent change in exposure, measurement of total arsenic concentrations in urine repeated biennially, did not have much effect on the mortality rate. Interpretation Chronic arsenic exposure through drinking water was associated with an increase in the mortality rate. Follow-up data from this cohort will be used to assess the long-term effects of arsenic exposure and how they might be affected by changes in exposure. However, solutions and resources are urgently needed to mitigate the resulting health effects of arsenic exposure. Funding US National Institutes of Health.

Abstract. This paper describes the scientific and structural updates to the latest release of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 4.7 (v4.7) and points the reader to additional resources for further details. The model updates were evaluated relative to observations and results from previous model versions in a series of simulations conducted to incrementally assess the effect of each change. The focus of this paper is on five major scientific upgrades: (a) updates to the heterogeneous N 2 O 5 parameterization, (b) improvement in the treatment of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), (c) inclusion of dynamic mass transfer for coarse-mode aerosol, (d) revisions to the cloud model, and (e) new options for the calculation of photolysis rates. Incremental test simulations over the eastern United States during January and August 2006 are evaluated to assess the model response to each scientific improvement, providing explanations of differences in results between v4.7 and previously released CMAQ model versions. Particulate sulfate predictions are improved across all monitoring networks during both seasons due to cloud module updates. Numerous updates to the SOA module improve the simulation of seasonal variability and decrease the bias in organic carbon predictions at urban sites in the winter. Bias in the total mass of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) is dominated by overpredictions of unspeciated PM 2.5 (PM other ) in the winter and by underpredictions of carbon in the summer. The CMAQv4.7 model results show slightly worse performance for ozone predictions.Correspondence to: K. M. Foley (foley.kristen@epa.gov) However, changes to the meteorological inputs are found to have a much greater impact on ozone predictions compared to changes to the CMAQ modules described here. Model updates had little effect on existing biases in wet deposition predictions.

Objective To evaluate the association between arsenic exposure and mortality from cardiovascular disease and to assess whether cigarette smoking influences the association.Design Prospective cohort study with arsenic exposure measured in drinking water from wells and urine.Setting General population in Araihazar, Bangladesh.Participants 11 746 men and women who provided urine samples in 2000 and were followed up for an average of 6.6 years.Main outcome measure Death from cardiovascular disease.Results 198 people died from diseases of circulatory system, accounting for 43% of total mortality in the population. The mortality rate for cardiovascular disease was 214.3 per 100 000 person years in people drinking water containing <12.0 µg/L arsenic, compared with 271.1 per 100 000 person years in people drinking water with ≥12.0 µg/L arsenic. There was a dose-response relation between exposure to arsenic in well water assessed at baseline and mortality from ischaemic heart disease and other heart disease; the hazard ratios in increasing quarters of arsenic concentration in well water (0.1-12.0, 12.1-62.0, 62.1-148.0, and 148.1-864.0 µg/L) were 1.00 (reference), 1.22 (0.65 to 2.32), 1.35 (0.71 to 2.57), and 1.92 (1.07 to 3.43) (P=0.0019 for trend), respectively, after adjustment for potential confounders including age, sex, smoking status, educational attainment, body mass index (BMI), and changes in urinary arsenic concentration since baseline. Similar associations were observed when baseline total urinary arsenic was used as the exposure variable and for mortality from ischaemic heart disease specifically. The data indicate a significant synergistic interaction between arsenic exposure and cigarette smoking in mortality from ischaemic heart disease and other heart disease. In particular, the hazard ratio for the joint effect of a moderate level of arsenic exposure (middle third of well arsenic concentration 25.3-114.0 µg/L, mean 63.5 µg/L) and cigarette smoking on mortality from heart disease was greater than the sum of the hazard ratios associated with their individual effect (relative excess risk for interaction 1.56, 0.05 to 3.14; P=0.010). Conclusions Exposure to arsenic in drinking water is adversely associated with mortality from heart disease, especially among smokers.