Importance: Critical care is expanding in low- and middle-income countries. Yet, due to factors such as missing data and different disease patterns, predictive scores often fail to adequately predict the high rates of mortality observed. Objectives: We evaluated multiple prognostic models for the outcome of mortality in critically ill, mechanically ventilated patients in rural Kenya and examined factors contributing to mortality in our setting. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective cohort study was conducted on mechanically ventilated patients in rural Kenya. Consecutive patients 16 years old and older initiated on mechanical ventilation between January 1, 2016, and April 30, 2017, at Tenwek Hospital were included. Demographic data, clinical characteristics, and patient outcomes were collected during routine clinical care. Main Outcomes and Measures: We assessed the discrimination and calibration of multiple previously-described models for mortality: Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, Simplified Acute Physiology Score II, Modified Early Warning Score, Tropical Intensive Care Score, Rwanda-Mortality Predictive Model, Vitals score (validated in Tanzania), and Vitals score for sepsis (validated in Uganda). Factors most associated with mortality were analyzed in our cohort utilizing stepwise regression. Results: Among the final cohort of 300 patients, the overall mortality rate was 60.7%, the average age was 39.9 years, 65% were male, and 33% were seen at an outside facility prior to admission to the critical care unit. Missing variables occurred in patients for numerous models but were complete in most adapted to resource-limited settings. Models displayed moderate prediction of mortality and variable discrimination area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (and Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistic) of 0.77 (22.4) for Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II, 0.70 (3.4) for Modified Early Warning Score, 0.65 (0.16) for quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, 0.55 (18.4) for Simplified Acute Physiology Score II and 0.74 (9.2) for Rwanda-Mortality Predictive Model, 0.72 (0.12) for Vitals Tanzania, 0.68 (14.7) for Vitals Uganda, and 0.65 (13.9) for Tropical Intensive Care Score. Variables associated with increased mortality in our population were hypotension, infection, traumatic brain injury, and hematocrit. Conclusions and Relevance: Overall, survival for critically ill patients in rural Kenya was poor, but predictable with contributing factors. Models designed for resource-constrained settings had favorable discrimination and better calibration for mortality prediction than high-resource models in our population of mechanically ventilated, critically ill patients in rural Kenya.

Objectives Hypothermia occurs in 30-50% of severely injured trauma patients and is associated with multiple metabolic derangements and worsened outcomes. However, hypothermia continues to be under-diagnosed which leads to inadequate triage and treatment in trauma patients. Our study set out to determine if hypothermia is an independent predictor of mortality in trauma patients. Methods We retrospectively reviewed data of all trauma activation patients over a 5-year period. Data were collected on patient demographics, initial core temperature, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) on presentation, and injury severity score (ISS). Patients were then stratified into groups based on presenting temperature, ISS, and GCS. Outcomes compared were mortality, blood products received, and intensive care unit (ICU) length of stay. Correlations and logistic regression were used to test the hypotheses. Results Survival and temperature data were reviewed on 15,567 patients. Initial temperature was not significantly associated with ICU length of stay or blood products transfused ( P = .21 and P = .08, respectively). However, odds ratio of mortality in hypothermic patients (<35°C) compared to normothermic patients (35-39°C) was 3.95 (95% CI 2.90-5.41). When controlling for GCS and ISS, separately, temperature remained an independent predictor of mortality. Conclusions Hypothermia is an independent risk factor for mortality in trauma patients. It remains crucial to obtain accurate presenting temperatures in trauma patients in order to triage and treat hypothermia. Based on our data, obtaining core temperatures and rapidly treating hypothermia continues to be a vital part of the secondary survey of trauma patients.

Objective: We describe a structured approach to developing a standardized curriculum for surgical trainees in East, Central, and Southern Africa (ECSA). Summary Background Data: Surgical education is essential to closing the surgical access gap in ECSA. Given its importance for surgical education, the development of a standardized curriculum was deemed necessary. Methods: We utilized Kern's 6-step approach to curriculum development to design an online, modular, flipped-classroom surgical curriculum. Steps included global and targeted needs assessments, determination of goals and objectives, the establishment of educational strategies, implementation, and evaluation. Results: Global needs assessment identified the development of a standardized curriculum as an essential next step in the growth of surgical education programs in ECSA. Targeted needs assessment of stakeholders found medical knowledge challenges, regulatory requirements, language variance, content gaps, expense and availability of resources, faculty numbers, and content delivery method to be factors to inform curriculum design. Goals emerged to increase uniformity and consistency in training, create contextually relevant material, incorporate best educational practices, reduce faculty burden, and ease content delivery and updates. Educational strategies centered on developing an online, flipped-classroom, modular curriculum emphasizing textual simplicity, multimedia components, and incorporation of active learning strategies. The implementation process involved establishing thematic topics and subtopics, the content of which was authored by regional surgeon educators and edited by content experts. Evaluation was performed by recording participation, soliciting user feedback, and evaluating scores on a certification examination. Conclusions: We present the systematic design of a large-scale, context-relevant, data-driven surgical curriculum for the ECSA region.