OJ287 is a quasi-periodic quasar with roughly 12 year optical cycles. It displays prominent outbursts that are predictable in a binary black hole model. The model predicted a major optical outburst in 2015 December. We found that the outburst did occur within the expected time range, peaking on 2015 December 5 at magnitude 12.9 in the optical R-band. Based on Swift/XRT satellite measurements and optical polarization data, we find that it included a major thermal component. Its timing provides an accurate estimate for the spin of the primary black hole, 0.313 0.01 c =  . The present outburst also confirms the established general relativistic properties of the system such as the loss of orbital energy to gravitational radiation at the 2% accuracy level, and it opens up the possibility of testing the black hole no-hair theorem with 10% accuracy during the present decade.

Results from regular monitoring of relativistic compact binaries like PSR 1913+16 are consistent with the dominant (quadrupole) order emission of gravitational waves (GWs). We show that observations associated with the binary black hole (BBH) central engine of blazar OJ287 demand the inclusion of gravitational radiation reaction effects beyond the quadrupolar order. It turns out that even the effects of certain hereditary contributions to GW emission are required to predict impact flare timings of OJ287. We develop an approach that incorporates this effect into the BBH model for OJ287. This allows us to demonstrate an excellent agreement between the observed impact flare timings and those predicted from ten orbital cycles of the BBH central engine model. The deduced rate of orbital period decay is nine orders of magnitude higher than the observed rate in PSR 1913+16, demonstrating again the relativistic nature of OJ287ʼs central engine. Finally, we argue that precise timing of the predicted 2019 impact flare should allow a test of the celebrated black hole "no-hair theorem" at the 10% level.

Blazars are active galactic nuclei, which are powerful sources of radiation whose central engine is located in the core of the host galaxy. Blazar emission is dominated by non-thermal radiation from a jet that moves relativistically towards us, and therefore undergoes Doppler beaming. This beaming causes flux enhancement and contraction of the variability timescales, so that most blazars appear as luminous sources characterized by noticeable and fast changes in brightness at all frequencies. The mechanism that produces this unpredictable variability is under debate, but proposed mechanisms include injection, acceleration and cooling of particles, with possible intervention of shock waves or turbulence. Changes in the viewing angle of the observed emitting knots or jet regions have also been suggested as an explanation of flaring events and can also explain specific properties of blazar emission, such as intra-day variability, quasi-periodicity and the delay of radio flux variations relative to optical changes. Such a geometric interpretation, however, is not universally accepted because alternative explanations based on changes in physical conditions-such as the size and speed of the emitting zone, the magnetic field, the number of emitting particles and their energy distribution-can explain snapshots of the spectral behaviour of blazars in many cases. Here we report the results of optical-to-radio-wavelength monitoring of the blazar CTA 102 and show that the observed long-term trends of the flux and spectral variability are best explained by an inhomogeneous, curved jet that undergoes changes in orientation over time. We propose that magnetohydrodynamic instabilities or rotation of the twisted jet cause different jet regions to change their orientation and hence their relative Doppler factors. In particular, the extreme optical outburst of 2016-2017 (brightness increase of six magnitudes) occurred when the corresponding emitting region had a small viewing angle. The agreement between observations and theoretical predictions can be seen as further validation of the relativistic beaming theory.

OpenBU http://open.bu.edu Astronomy BU Open Access Articles 2018-08-20 Stochastic modeling of multiwavelength variability of the classical BL Lac Object OJ287...

Successful observations of the seven predicted bremsstrahlung flares from the unique bright blazar OJ 287 firmly point to the presence of a nanohertz gravitational wave (GW) emitting supermassive black hole (SMBH) binary central engine. We present arguments for the continued monitoring of the source in several electromagnetic windows to firmly establish various details of the SMBH binary central engine description for OJ 287. In this article, we explore what more can be known about this system, particularly with regard to accretion and outflows from its two accretion disks. We mainly concentrate on the expected impact of the secondary black hole on the disk of the primary on 3 December 2021 and the resulting electromagnetic signals in the following years. We also predict the times of exceptional fades, and outline their usefulness in the study of the host galaxy. A spectral survey has been carried out, and spectral lines from the secondary were searched for but were not found. The jet of the secondary has been studied and proposals to discover it in future VLBI observations are mentioned. In conclusion, the binary black hole model explains a large number of observations of different kinds in OJ 287. Carefully timed future observations will be able to provide further details of its central engine. Such multi-wavelength and multidisciplinary efforts will be required to pursue multi-messenger nanohertz GW astronomy with OJ 287 in the coming decades.