Metastatic breast cancer is usually diagnosed after becoming symptomatic, at which point it is rarely curable. Cell-free circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) contains tumor-specific chromosomal rearrangements that may be interrogated in blood plasma. We evaluated serial monitoring of ctDNA for earlier detection of metastasis in a retrospective study of 20 patients diagnosed with primary breast cancer and long follow-up. Using an approach combining low-coverage whole-genome sequencing of primary tumors and quantification of tumor-specific rearrangements in plasma by droplet digital PCR, we identify for the first time that ctDNA monitoring is highly accurate for postsurgical discrimination between patients with (93%) and without (100%) eventual clinically detected recurrence. ctDNA-based detection preceded clinical detection of metastasis in 86% of patients with an average lead time of 11 months (range 0–37 months), whereas patients with long-term disease-free survival had undetectable ctDNA postoperatively. ctDNA quantity was predictive of poor survival. These findings establish the rationale for larger validation studies in early breast cancer to evaluate ctDNA as a monitoring tool for early metastasis detection, therapy modification, and to aid in avoidance of overtreatment.

The known breast cancer (BC) susceptibility polymorphisms in FGFR2, TNRC9/TOX3, MAP3K1,LSP1 and 2q35 confer increased risks of BC for BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers. We evaluated the associations of three additional SNPs, rs4973768 in SLC4A7/NEK10, rs6504950 in STXBP4/COX11 and rs10941679 at 5p12 and reanalyzed the previous associations using additional carriers in a sample of 12,525 BRCA1 and 7,409 BRCA2 carriers. Additionally, we investigated potential interactions between SNPs and assessed the implications for risk prediction. The minor alleles of rs4973768 and rs10941679 were associated with increased BC risk for BRCA2 carriers (per-allele Hazard Ratio (HR)=1.10, 95%CI:1.03-1.18, p=0.006 and HR=1.09, 95%CI:1.01-1.19, p=0.03, respectively). Neither SNP was associated with BC risk for BRCA1 carriers and rs6504950 was not associated with BC for either BRCA1 or BRCA2 carriers. Of the nine polymorphisms investigated, seven were associated with BC for BRCA2 carriers (FGFR2, TOX3, MAP3K1, LSP1, 2q35, SLC4A7, 5p12, p-values:7×10−11-0.03), but only TOX3 and 2q35 were associated with the risk for BRCA1 carriers (p=0.0049, 0.03 respectively). All risk associated polymorphisms appear to interact multiplicatively on BC risk for mutation carriers. Based on the joint genotype distribution of the seven risk associated SNPs in BRCA2 mutation carriers, the 5% of BRCA2 carriers at highest risk (i.e. between 95th and 100th percentiles) were predicted to have a probability between 80% and 96% of developing BC by age 80, compared with 42-50% for the 5% of carriers at lowest risk. Our findings indicated that these risk differences may be sufficient to influence the clinical management of mutation carriers.