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The mortality benefit of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) screening has been reported in several studies; however, the results of ESCC screening programs in China are suboptimal. Our study aimed to develop an ESCC risk prediction model to identify high-risk individuals for population-based esophageal cancer screening. In total, 86 745 participants enrolled in a population-based esophageal cancer screening program in rural China between 2007 and 2012 were included in the present study and followed up until December 31, 2015. Models for identifying individuals at risk of ESCC within 3 years were created using logistic regressions. The area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was determined to estimate the model's overall performance. A total of 298 individuals were diagnosed with ESCC within 3 years after baseline. The model of ESCC included the predictors of age, sex, family history of upper gastrointestinal cancer, smoking status, alarming symptoms of retrosternal pain, back pain or neck pain, consumption of salted food and fresh fruits and disease Abbreviations: +LR, positive likelihood ratio; AUC, area under the receiver operating curve; BMI, body mass index; CI, confidence interval; ESCC, esophageal squamous cell carcinoma; −LR, negative likelihood ratio; NNS, number needed to screen; NPV, negative predictive value; OR, odds ratio; PPV, positive predictive value; UGI, upper gastrointestinal. Wanqing Chen and He Li contributed equally to this study.

To determine the preliminary effectiveness of breast cancer screening among Chinese females, 1226714 women aged 35–69 years first received clinical breast examinations. Urban women with suspected cancer received mammography followed by breast ultrasound (BUS), while rural suspected women underwent BUS followed by mammography. After one-year follow-up, 223 and 431 breast cancers were detected among urban and rural women (respectively), with overall detection rates of 0.56/1000 and 0.52/1000. Higher detection rates were significantly associated with older age at screening for both urban and rural women; additionally, urban women were at significantly higher risk if they had no job, no insurance, or were obese; additional risk factors specific to rural women included Han nationality, higher income, being unmarried, and having a family history of cancer (all P values < 0.05). Among screening-detected breast cancers in urban vs. rural women, 46.2% and 38.8% (respectively) were early stage, 62.5% and 66.3% were ≤2 centimeters, 38.0% and 47.3% included lymph-node involvement, and 14.0% and 6.0% were identified as carcinoma in situ. All abovementioned cancer characteristics were significantly better than clinic-detected cancers (all P values < 0.001). In conclusion, several important differences were found between urban and rural women in screening effectiveness and patterns of cancer distribution.

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