Blood biomarkers have great potential to advance clinical care and accelerate trials in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Plasma phospho-tau181 (p-tau181) is a promising blood biomarker however, it is unknown if levels increase in presymptomatic AD. Therefore, we investigated the timing of p-tau181 changes using 153 blood samples from 70 individuals in a longitudinal study of familial AD (FAD). Plasma p-tau181 was measured, using an in-house Single molecule array assay. We compared p-tau181 between symptomatic carriers, presymptomatic carriers, and non-carriers, adjusting for age and sex. We examined the relationship between p-tau181 and neurofilament light and estimated years to/from symptom onset (EYO), as well as years to/from actual onset in a symptomatic subgroup. Additionally, we studied associations between p-tau181 and clinical severity, as well testing for differences between genetic subgroups. Twenty-four were presymptomatic carriers (mean baseline EYO-9•6 years) while 27 were non-carriers. Compared with non-carriers, plasma p-tau181 concentration was higher in both symptomatic (p<0•001) and presymptomatic mutation carriers (p<0•001). Plasma p-tau181 showed considerable intra-individual variability but individual values discriminated symptomatic (AUC 0•93 [95% CI 0•85−0•98]) and presymptomatic (EYO ≥-7 years) (AUC 0•86 [95% CI 0•72−0•94]) carriers from non-carriers of the same age and sex. From a fitted model there was evidence (p=0•050) that p-tau181 concentrations were higher in mutation carriers than non-carriers from 16 years prior to estimated symptom onset. Our finding that plasma p-tau181 concentration is increased in symptomatic and presymptomatic FAD suggests potential utility as an easily accessible biomarker of AD pathology.

Posterior cortical atrophy is a clinico-radiological syndrome characterized by progressive decline in visual processing and atrophy of posterior brain regions. With the majority of cases attributable to Alzheimer’s disease and recent evidence for genetic risk factors specifically related to posterior cortical atrophy, the syndrome can provide important insights into selective vulnerability and phenotypic diversity. The present study describes the first major longitudinal investigation of posterior cortical atrophy disease progression. Three hundred and sixty-one individuals (117 posterior cortical atrophy, 106 typical Alzheimer’s disease, 138 controls) fulfilling consensus criteria for posterior cortical atrophy-pure and typical Alzheimer’s disease were recruited from three centres in the UK, Spain and USA. Participants underwent up to six annual assessments involving MRI scans and neuropsychological testing. We constructed longitudinal trajectories of regional brain volumes within posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer’s disease using differential equation models. We compared and contrasted the order in which regional brain volumes become abnormal within posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer’s disease using event-based models. We also examined trajectories of cognitive decline and the order in which different cognitive tests show abnormality using the same models. Temporally aligned trajectories for eight regions of interest revealed distinct (P < 0.002) patterns of progression in posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer’s disease. Patients with posterior cortical atrophy showed early occipital and parietal atrophy, with subsequent higher rates of temporal atrophy and ventricular expansion leading to tissue loss of comparable extent later. Hippocampal, entorhinal and frontal regions underwent a lower rate of change and never approached the extent of posterior cortical involvement. Patients with typical Alzheimer’s disease showed early hippocampal atrophy, with subsequent higher rates of temporal atrophy and ventricular expansion. Cognitive models showed tests sensitive to visuospatial dysfunction declined earlier in posterior cortical atrophy than typical Alzheimer’s disease whilst tests sensitive to working memory impairment declined earlier in typical Alzheimer’s disease than posterior cortical atrophy. These findings indicate that posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer’s disease have distinct sites of onset and different profiles of spatial and temporal progression. The ordering of disease events both motivates investigation of biological factors underpinning phenotypic heterogeneity, and informs the selection of measures for clinical trials in posterior cortical atrophy.