Estimating detailed transmission trees that reflect the relationships between infected individuals or populations during a disease outbreak often provides valuable insights into both the nature of disease transmission and the overall dynamics of the underlying epidemiological process. These trees may be based on epidemiological data that relate to the timing of infection and infectiousness, or genetic data that show the genetic relatedness of pathogens isolated from infected individuals. Genetic data are becoming increasingly important in the estimation of transmission trees of viral pathogens due to their inherently high mutation rate. Here, we propose a maximum-likelihood approach that allows epidemiological and genetic data to be combined within the same analysis to infer probable transmission trees. We apply this approach to data from 20 farms infected during the 2001 UK foot-and-mouth disease outbreak, using complete viral genome sequences from each infected farm and information on when farms were first estimated to have developed clinical disease and when livestock on these farms were culled. Incorporating known infection links due to animal movement prior to imposition of the national movement ban results in the reduction of the number of trees from 41 472 that are consistent with the genetic data to 1728, of which just 4 represent more than 95% of the total likelihood calculated using a model that accounts for the epidemiological data. These trees differ in several ways from those constructed prior to the availability of genetic data.

Summary1. Culicoides biting midges are vectors of internationally important arboviruses including bluetongue virus (BTV). The ecological constraints imposed by the small body size of these insects strongly influence the epidemiology of the diseases they can carry. Bluetongue virus recently emerged in northern Europe, and atmospheric dispersion models have subsequently been employed to simulate vector movement (and hence likely spread of BTV). The data underlying such models, however, have hitherto either been obtained from small-scale studies or from outside the northwestern Palaearctic. 2. The effects of seasonality and local meteorological conditions upon the daily presence and abundance of Culicoides vectors were examined using 2760 samples collected across a network of 12 different habitat types in England during 2008. Over 50 000 individuals were estimated to be in the samples with males constituting 62% of the total collection, allowing straightforward comparison between potential vector species in terms of their activity rates and seasonality. Culicoides abundance was linked to livestock density and land use. Farm-associated Culicoides species were recorded at all sites including species thought to be restricted to this ecosystem by larval habitat, suggesting a greater potential for dispersal over land than previously thought. 3. Synthesis and applications. The model developed has already been applied in a functional dispersion model to predict disease risk from wind-borne infected Culicoides incursion into the UK and elsewhere. The study has expounded the long-distance dispersal potential of Culicoides, essential for future prediction of the incursion and spread of Culicoides-borne pathogens. It has additionally contributed to the understanding of the ecology of highly dispersive insect vectors.

This paper presents evidence that a field strain of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) was transmitted transplacentally and that it was also spread by a direct contact route. Twenty pregnant heifers were imported from the Netherlands into Northern Ireland during the midge-free season. Tests before and after the animals were imported showed that eight of them had antibodies to bluetongue virus, but no viral RNA was detected in any of them by reverse transcriptase-PCR (RT-PCR). Two of the seropositive heifers gave birth to three calves that showed evidence of bluetongue virus infection (RT-PCR-positive), and one of the calves was viraemic. Two further viraemic animals (one newly calved Dutch heifer, and one milking cow originally from Scotland) were also found to have been infected with BTV-8 and evidence is presented that these two animals may have been infected by direct contact, possibly through the ingestion of placentas infected with BTV-8.