Predictive models of immune protection from COVID-19 are urgently needed to identify correlates of protection to assist in the future deployment of vaccines. To address this, we analyzed the relationship between in vitro neutralization levels and the observed protection from severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection using data from seven current vaccines and from convalescent cohorts. We estimated the neutralization level for 50% protection against detectable SARS-CoV-2 infection to be 20.2% of the mean convalescent level (95% confidence interval (CI) = 14.4-28.4%). The estimated neutralization level required for 50% protection from severe infection was significantly lower (3% of the mean convalescent level; 95% CI = 0.7-13%, P = 0.0004). Modeling of the decay of the neutralization titer over the first 250 d after immunization predicts that a significant loss in protection from SARS-CoV-2 infection will occur, although protection from severe disease should be largely retained. Neutralization titers against some SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern are reduced compared with the vaccine strain, and our model predicts the relationship between neutralization and efficacy against viral variants. Here, we show that neutralization level is highly predictive of immune protection, and provide an evidence-based model of SARS-CoV-2 immune protection that will assist in developing vaccine strategies to control the future trajectory of the pandemic.

A proportion of patients surviving acute coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) infection develop post-acute COVID syndrome (long COVID (LC)) lasting longer than 12 weeks. Here, we studied individuals with LC compared to age-and gender-matched recovered individuals without LC, unexposed donors and individuals infected with other coronaviruses. Patients with LC had highly activated innate immune cells, lacked naive T and B cells and showed elevated expression of type I IFN (IFN-β) and type III IFN (IFN-λ1) that remained persistently high at 8 months after infection. Using a log-linear classification model, we defined an optimal set of analytes that had the strongest association with LC among the 28 analytes measured. Combinations of the inflammatory mediators IFN-β, PTX3, IFN-γ, IFN-λ2/3 and IL-6 associated with LC with 78.5-81.6% accuracy. This work defines immunological parameters associated with LC and suggests future opportunities for prevention and treatment.Acute COVID-19, caused by infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is characterized by a broad spectrum of clinical severity, from asymptomatic to fatal 1,2 . The immune response during acute illness contributes to both host defense and pathogenesis of severe ). Pronounced immune dysregulation with lymphopenia and increased expression of inflammatory mediators 3,4 have been described in the acute phase. Following acute COVID-19 infection, a proportion of patients develop physical and neuropsychiatric symptoms lasting longer than 12 weeks (known as Long COVID, chronic COVID syndrome or post-acute sequelae of )), henceforth denoted as LC. Although similar syndromes have been described following infection with SARS-CoV-1 (ref. 6 ) and Middle East respiratory syndrome-related coronavirus 7 , LC often develops after mild-to-moderate 9 ). Symptoms persisting 6 months were observed in 76% of hospitalized patients, with muscle weakness and fatigue being most frequently reported 10,11 . LC affects between 10% and 30% of community-managed COVID-19 cases 2 to 3 months after infection 12,13 and can persist >8 months after infection 14 . LC symptoms include severe relapsing fatigue, dyspnea, chest tightness, cough,

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