SUMMARY The extent to which low-frequency (minor allele frequency [MAF] between 1–5%) and rare (MAF ≤ 1%) variants contribute to complex traits and disease in the general population is largely unknown. Bone mineral density (BMD) is highly heritable, is a major predictor of osteoporotic fractures and has been previously associated with common genetic variants1–8, and rare, population-specific, coding variants9. Here we identify novel non-coding genetic variants with large effects on BMD (ntotal = 53,236) and fracture (ntotal = 508,253) in individuals of European ancestry from the general population. Associations for BMD were derived from whole-genome sequencing (n=2,882 from UK10K), whole-exome sequencing (n= 3,549), deep imputation of genotyped samples using a combined UK10K/1000Genomes reference panel (n=26,534), and de-novo replication genotyping (n= 20,271). We identified a low-frequency non-coding variant near a novel locus, EN1, with an effect size 4-fold larger than the mean of previously reported common variants for lumbar spine BMD8 (rs11692564[T], MAF = 1.7%, replication effect size = +0.20 standard deviations [SD], Pmeta = 2×10−14), which was also associated with a decreased risk of fracture (OR = 0.85; P = 2×10−11; ncases = 98,742 and ncontrols = 409,511). Using an En1Cre/flox mouse model, we observed that conditional loss of En1 results in low bone mass, likely as a consequence of high bone turn-over. We also identified a novel low-frequency non-coding variant with large effects on BMD near WNT16 (rs148771817[T], MAF = 1.1%, replication effect size = +0.39 SD, Pmeta = 1×10−11). In general, there was an excess of association signals arising from deleterious coding and conserved non-coding variants. These findings provide evidence that low-frequency non-coding variants have large effects on BMD and fracture, thereby providing rationale for whole-genome sequencing and improved imputation reference panels to study the genetic architecture of complex traits and disease in the general population.

Denosumab reduces bone resorption and vertebral and nonvertebral fracture risk. Denosumab discontinuation increases bone turnover markers 3 months after a scheduled dose is omitted, reaching above-baseline levels by 6 months, and decreases bone mineral density (BMD) to baseline levels by 12 months. We analyzed the risk of new or worsening vertebral fractures, especially multiple vertebral fractures, in participants who discontinued denosumab during the FREEDOM study or its Extension. Participants received ≥2 doses of denosumab or placebo Q6M, discontinued treatment, and stayed in the study ≥7 months after the last dose. Of 1001 participants who discontinued denosumab during FREEDOM or Extension, the vertebral fracture rate increased from 1.2 per 100 participant-years during the on-treatment period to 7.1, similar to participants who received and then discontinued placebo (n = 470; 8.5 per 100 participant-years). Among participants with ≥1 off-treatment vertebral fracture, the proportion with multiple (>1) was larger among those who discontinued denosumab (60.7%) than placebo (38.7%; p = 0.049), corresponding to a 3.4% and 2.2% risk of multiple vertebral fractures, respectively. The odds (95% confidence interval) of developing multiple vertebral fractures after stopping denosumab were 3.9 (2.1-7. 2) times higher in those with prior vertebral fractures, sustained before or during treatment, than those without, and 1.6 (1.3-1.9) times higher with each additional year of off-treatment follow-up; among participants with available off-treatment total hip (TH) BMD measurements, the odds were 1.2 (1.1-1.3) times higher per 1% annualized TH BMD loss. The rates (per 100 participant-years) of nonvertebral fractures during the off-treatment period were similar (2.8, denosumab; 3.8, placebo). The vertebral fracture rate increased upon denosumab discontinuation to the level observed in untreated participants. A majority of participants who sustained a vertebral fracture after discontinuing denosumab had multiple vertebral fractures, with greatest risk in participants with a prior vertebral fracture. Therefore, patients who discontinue denosumab should rapidly transition to an alternative antiresorptive treatment. Clinicaltrails.gov: NCT00089791 (FREEDOM) and NCT00523341 (Extension). © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Objective To investigate the long term effect of hormone replacement therapy on cardiovascular outcomes in recently postmenopausal women.Design Open label, randomised controlled trial.Setting Denmark, 1990-93. Participants 1006 healthy women aged 45-58 who were recently postmenopausal or had perimenopausal symptoms in combination with recorded postmenopausal serum follicle stimulating hormone values. 502 women were randomly allocated to receive hormone replacement therapy and 504 to receive no treatment (control). Women who had undergone hysterectomy were included if they were aged 45-52 and had recorded values for postmenopausal serum follicle stimulating hormone. InterventionsIn the treatment group, women with an intact uterus were treated with triphasic estradiol and norethisterone acetate and women who had undergone hysterectomy received 2 mg estradiol a day. Intervention was stopped after about 11 years owing to adverse reports from other trials, but participants were followed for death, cardiovascular disease, and cancer for up to 16 years. Sensitivity analyses were carried out on women who took more than 80% of the prescribed treatment for five years.Main outcome measure The primary endpoint was a composite of death, admission to hospital for heart failure, and myocardial infarction.

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