Persistent infections with carcinogenic human papillomaviruses (HPV) cause virtually all cervical cancers. Cervical HPV types (n > 40) also represent the most common sexually transmitted agents, and most infections clear in 1-2 years. The risks of persistence and neoplastic progression to cancer and its histologic precursor, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 (CIN3), differ markedly by HPV type. To study type-specific HPV natural history, we conducted a 10,000-woman, population-based prospective study of HPV infections and CIN3/cancer in Guanacaste, Costa Rica. By studying large numbers of women, we wished to separate viral persistence from neoplastic progression. We observed a strong concordance of newly-revised HPV evolutionary groupings with the separate risks of persistence and progression to CIN3/cancer. HPV16 was uniquely likely both to persist and to cause neoplastic progression when it persisted, making it a remarkably powerful human carcinogen that merits separate clinical consideration. Specifically, 19.9% of HPV16-infected women were diagnosed with CIN3/cancer at enrollment or during the five-year follow-up. Other carcinogenic types, many related to HPV16, were not particularly persistent but could cause neoplastic progression, at lower rates than HPV16, if they did persist. Some low-risk types were persistent but, nevertheless, virtually never caused CIN3. Therefore, carcinogenicity is not strictly a function of persistence. Separately, we noted that the carcinogenic HPV types code for an E5 protein, whereas most low-risk types either lack a definable homologous E5 ORF and/or a translation start codon for E5. These results present several clear clues and research directions in our ongoing efforts to understand HPV carcinogenesis.

BackgroundThree-dose regimens for human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are expensive and difficult to complete, especially in settings where the need for cervical cancer prevention is greatest.MethodsWe evaluated the vaccine efficacy of fewer than three doses of the HPV16/18 vaccine Cervarix in our Costa Rica Vaccine Trial. Women were randomly assigned to receive three doses of the HPV16/18 vaccine or to a control vaccine and were followed for incident HPV16 or HPV18 infection that persisted in visits that were 10 or more months apart (median follow-up 4.2 years). After excluding women who had no follow-up or who were HPV16 and HPV18 DNA positive at enrollment, 5967 women received three vaccine doses (2957 HPV vaccine vs 3010 control vaccine), 802 received two doses (422 HPV vs 380 control), and 384 received one dose (196 HPV vs 188 control). Reasons for receiving fewer doses and other pre- and post-randomization characteristics were balanced within each dosage group between women receiving the HPV and control vaccines.ResultsIncident HPV16 or HPV18 infections that persisted for 1 year were unrelated to dosage of the control vaccine. Vaccine efficacy was 80.9% for three doses of the HPV vaccine (95% confidence interval [CI] = 71.1% to 87.7%; 25 and 133 events in the HPV and control arms, respectively), 84.1% for two doses (95% CI = 50.2% to 96.3%; 3 and 17 events), and 100% for one dose (95% CI = 66.5% to 100%; 0 and 10 events).ConclusionFour years after vaccination of women who appeared to be uninfected, this nonrandomized analysis suggests that two doses of the HPV16/18 vaccine, and maybe even one dose, are as protective as three doses.

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